Donal Lenihan: England clash a true examination of where Ireland stands
Eddie Jones has always prided himself in being ahead of the posse when looking to other sports to gain an edge or those tiny gains that might help to keep his side to the forefront in the race for silverware.
That is why the noticeable fall off in performance levels in the latter half of the Autumn Nations Cup and early rounds of this Six Nations would have worried him considerably.
In attempting to put his finger on the reason why England were so flat in their defeat to Scotland, he explained that ‘the arousal level is the thing we are looking at the most. Games have tended to be less aggressive generally in rugby and I think it has been the same in football’. He was referring to a recent study about RB Salzburg that found there had been a 20% reduction in “emotional” incidents in the team’s games since the removal of supporters due to Covid-19 restrictions.
Bottom line is that, up until the French game last weekend, England hadn’t been able to produce the impressive levels of intensity that formed such a key part of their approach when winning the championship last season and in the highly impressive wins over Australia and New Zealand at the quarter and semi final stages of the 2019 World Cup.
Ireland don’t appear to have suffered any appreciable fall off in the levels of hunger, commitment or desire, despite those empty stadia, in this championship. Ireland’s problems relate to an inability to convert quality set piece possession and breakdown superiority into stressing opposition defences, generating line breaks and try scoring opportunities further out than 15 metres from the opposition try line.
There’s one thing we can say with certainty and that’s when England arrive in town, crowd or no crowd, ‘arousal’ levels will be the least of the problems facing the Irish players. One of the fundamental issues England had at the outset of the tournament was having far too many key Saracens players in Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Mako and Billy Vunipola, Elliot Daly and Jamie George without competitive rugby since December 6.
By getting England on the final day of action, unfortunately from an Irish perspective, that issue has been resolved. England looked back to their best in their cracking win over France last weekend. They are now in the best place, both physically and mentally, than at any stage in this championship. That’s a concern.
So often in sport these days we are told that you learn more in defeat than in victory. If that really is the case then Andy Farrell and his coaching team must have a hefty dossier, full to the brim, on what it takes to beat England. On four successive occasions now, Ireland have learned the hard way that trying to seize control of the gain line, using a series of one out runners against a voracious England defensive line not only packed with big powerful men but also bolstered with suffocating line speed, is a fight we are never going to win.
While Ireland have been criticised for kicking away too much possession, stretching back to the Joe Schmidt era, their kicking strategy today if properly directed, can play an important role in unlocking this England defence.
No different to every other back three player Ireland face these days, England winger Jonny May referenced how he has been honing his aerial skills this week in the expectation that high hanging bombs will be raining atop him.
With space at a premium, that kick chase game is an integral part of international rugby but it doesn’t have to be the dominant feature. France have shown that with some brilliantly inventive plays, especially from lineouts with off the top deliveries from the middle, tail and over the back to Gael Fickou in midfield, that you can ask different questions of defences off first phase.
With England’s back three conscious of their responsibilities off Ireland’s kicking threat, it forces at least two of them to retreat deeper into the back field. That can create a no man’s land between the solid white English defensive line and the retreating winger and full back which appears after a few phases.
Ireland must not only recognise that, but seek to manufacture and exploit it with some deft grubbers, bouncing tantalisingly into that area or directed towards the five metre tramlines. We saw the havoc which the unpredictable bounce of a rugby ball created in Murrayfield last weekend, playing a significant role in Ireland’s opening try from Robbie Henshaw and in the calamitous concession of a try to Finn Russell. Ireland need to create that chaos.
If Ireland attack England in the same manner they did on the last four occasions the sides met, they will get the same outcome. If the coaches really have learned lessons from those defeats then let’s see them implemented in today’s approach and gameplan.
When the original schedule was announced, there was high expectations within both camps that, at least one of today’s opponents would be chasing a Triple Crown or a Grand Slam.
While winning the championship is now beyond both, there is still a lot at stake, not least finishing the tournament on a high. There is also the individual carrot of chasing a spot in the British and Irish Lions squad, something Johnny Sexton has been quite open about at a time when so many players tend to steer clear of that conversation in the public domain.
It’s now over two years since Ireland have defeated a side ranked above them and, for that reason alone, beating England would be a notable achievement. They too have been hit with injury and in the absence of Manu Tuilagi and Henry Slade, the out of form Elliot Daly has been asked to play at outside centre at this level for the first time in almost five years.
Opposite him today, another man asked to take on a change of role in perhaps Ireland’s most consistent back in the championship in Henshaw. His understanding with former Connacht midfield partner Bundee Aki offers something slightly different. Ireland need to test Daly early in that outside channel given his confidence levels must be impacted by having lost the No 15 shirt to Max Malins.
The worry for Ireland is that they will be operating against a for more potent England set piece than they have faced to date with their attacking line out, statistically, the most reliable in the tournament, facing Ireland’s massively disruptive one. Something will have to give.
Ireland’s use of possession will have to be far smarter this time out in order to make any inroads against that stubborn English defence. The opening quarter will tell us so much as to how this game is likely to unfold with England enjoying very productive starts against us in recent times.
Once they get their tails up, they are very hard to subdue. On the flip side, if Ireland manage to build any semblance of continual pressure, England’s questionable temperament and facility for giving away cheap penalties, affords Sexton the chance to keep building further on his remarkable return from the boot in recent games.
The loss up front of James Ryan and Will Connors is huge, not least in the disruption it has caused to a backrow that was beginning to gel perfectly in recent outings. With Connors gone, Tadhg Beirne shifted to the second row and CJ Stander moved from No 8 to the blindside of the scrum, that unit is completely revamped and will come under big pressure to deliver, especially with Tom Curry and Billy Vunipola back to their best against France.
The odds are stacked against Ireland in this one but this England side is far from unbeatable. That said, to have any chance, Ireland will have to deliver their best performance of the Farrell era.
