Donal Lenihan: The key for Ireland - denying Scotland any reason to get their tails up
James Ryan and Dave Kilcoyne at Ireland squad training. Picture: INPHO/Dan Sheridan
While there is merit in Paul O’Connell’s assertion that this is the best Scottish team he has been involved against as a player or coach, there is still a large element of doubt surrounding their ability to get the job done under pressure.
Opening their campaign with a first Six Nations win over England in Twickenham since 1983 set them up perfectly for what was to follow but they fell at the very next hurdle, at home to Wales.
While there was mitigating circumstances in that defeat, with prop Zander Fagerson sent off early in the second half, Scotland were firmly in control of the game to that point. It was almost as if an excuse for losing was cast their way and they took it.
When Peter O’Mahony was sent off in similar circumstances in Cardiff, Ireland were trailing 6-0. Yet by half time every Irish player dug in and rose their game, against the odds, to lead 6-13. Scotland never displayed anything like that doggedness after Fagerson’s dismissal leading to further questions about their willingness to stay in the fight.
It’s only four months since Ireland beat Scotland 31-16 in a game they were under enormous pressure to win having lost badly to England two weeks earlier. Ireland appear to have a blueprint for beating Scotland whereas they struggle to find a way to beat the English.
Ireland’s physicality has proved too much for the Scots in the last three encounters, starting with that win at the World Cup in Japan, following on into Andy Farrell’s first Six Nations game in charge at the outset of last season’s championship and culminating in the Autumn Nations Cup play off last December.
Scotland’s constant need to talk themselves up smacks of insecurity after years of failing to deliver when it matters most. There was no real pressure on them heading to Twickenham in round one and that showed in their performance. They were outstanding and brought a far better balance to their kicking game, resisting the temptation to run everything which had cost them in the past.
Against Wales they continued to impress before imploding after Ferguson’s red card. With their game against France postponed, they have been left to stew over that demoralising defeat for the last four weeks. If Ireland allow Scotland to play, they will do damage. Seize control from the outset however and they tend to run up blind alleys. So how do Ireland go about achieving that?
The Scots tend to be slow learners. It took Gregor Townsend a long time to cop on to the fact, despite his vast experience as a quality player, that international rugby is appreciably different to its club counterpart.
As Glasgow Warriors coach, he did a magnificent job, transformed the way they played by attacking teams through a brilliant high-tempo, off-loading game that reached its peak when they dismantled Munster 31-13 in the 2015 Pro12 final in Belfast.
That success eventually catapulted him into the Scottish job. The mistake he made was in trying to replicate that approach on the international stage without having the foundations in place. France are showing that it is possible to play that way while Ireland are attempting a similar approach. We will know more on that front after this game.
Having been physically pummeled by Ireland at the World Cup and subsequently losing out to a Japanese team who were far superior at that high tempo game, Townsend was forced to completely revamp his approach.
In the year since the World Cup, Scotland have become far more pragmatic, beefed up their pack and are more difficult to beat. Their set piece has improved immeasurably, as has their maul, and they are far more physical and competitive at the breakdown. The one blemish on that front was in that Autumn Nations Cup game last December against an Irish side under a lot of pressure to perform.
Scotland learned from that and their forwards were outstanding against England. The one weakness up front, which Wales exposed, was very poor defence on the ground of the line out maul.
It contributed directly to three Welsh tries. O’Connell will have noted that and, I’m certain, have primed his pack to test whether they have managed to fix that over the last few weeks. If not, Ireland should be ready to take advantage.
If Ireland can deliver quality ball off the set-piece, the battle for gain line supremacy will become that bit easier. In Hamish Watson, Jamie Richie and Jonny Gray, who is playing the best rugby of his career since moving to Exeter Chiefs, the Scots have three really influential poachers who will have to be negated. Tadhg Beirne, Will Connors and CJ Stander will be tasked with that job.
Perhaps the biggest improvement in Scotland’s game since the World Cup surrounds their defensive organisation. Having conceded the least number of tries in last season’s championship with five, starting this tournament by keeping a clean sheet, away from home against England, must have sent confidence soaring.
Under the impressive stewardship of defence coach Steve Tandy, Scotland were proving very difficult to break down. Then a revamped Welsh backline with rookie half backs in Kieran Hardy and Callum Sheedy, introduced off the bench just after the break, and a new flier on the wing in Louis Rees-Zammitt prised that defensive shield wide open, registering four tries in the process.
Wales exposed Scotland defensively in the wide channels, aided by quick ball from the breakdown and a very astute kicking game that exploited space in behind the Scotland back three.
Given that their new defensive solidity had become a comfort blanket for the Scots when losing the battle for possession, that key area has now been called into question.
Ireland need to closely examine how Wales went about their business in attack and undermine Scotland in the back field.
The attacking threat posed by an electric back three of Stuart Hogg, Duhan van der Merwe and Sean Maitland is a concern for Ireland, especially if their kicking game is off and that trio are offered any semblance of space to mount a counter-attack. They have the capacity to cut a side apart.
Make them turn, pressurise them into making mistakes, and another key strength of theirs can be turned into a weakness. Hogg’s tactical kicking was excellent against England while his running game was superb against Wales. So often he is the barometer for how Scotland play. He was poor last time out in Dublin and is often suspect defensively.
If Ireland manage to undermine him, Scottish heads are capable of dropping ever so slightly. Offer him a platform to play and Scotland are capable of winning tomorrow. Ireland hold an ace up their sleeve in the form of a really explosive bench, especially up front where Dave Kilcoyne, Rónan Kelleher, Andrew Porter, Ryan Baird and Jack Conan are all capable of making a colossal impact.
Hopefully they will provide the impetus to carry Ireland home in the final quarter.
