Donal Lenihan: Three key areas as Irish chase first Cardiff win since 2013
POWER PLAY: Tadhg Beirne starts in the second row against Wales , with Tadhg Furlong likely to play a key role from the bench in Cardiff.
With just three wins from 10 international outings in 2020, there’s enormous pressure on the Welsh players and management coming into this championship.
With what they perceive as eminently winnable games at home to Ireland and away to Scotland in the opening phase of the championship, Wales will be trading heavily on emotion tomorrow in a bid to reverse their recent slump.
Head coach Wayne Pivac has bowed to pressure and taken a step back in time by recalling a number of players to his matchday squad in a bid to turn things around. I couldn’t believe just how flat and off the pace, both physically and mentally, Wales appeared in that 32-9 defeat in the Autumn Nations Cup game against Ireland last November. Observing from the stand, their body language was poor and they were miles removed from what we had come to expect.
Without any semblance of success with their district sides, so many of the Welsh players pour all their emotional energy into playing in that Welsh jersey, something Warren Gatland was very tuned into. Of all the sides, Wales will miss the fanatical home support they attract at the Principality Stadium more than any other country.
It didn’t help their cause when their autumn games were staged at a soulless Parc y Scarlets. Returning to the national stadium tomorrow, even without supporters, provides a boost to a squad grasping at straws to regain the internal drive and cohesion that brought them to within three points of beating eventual champions South Africa in the World Cup semi-final just over a year ago.
The challenge for Ireland is in negating the Welsh energy and passion from the off. In the defeat to Wales two years ago, Hadleigh Parkes scored a try in the opening minute, propelling Wales to an emphatic 25-7 Grand Slam clinching win. Ireland must find a way to dent the home side’s brittle confidence by controlling possession and territory from the outset.
The Welsh players aren’t the only ones looking for an early psychological boost, something Andy Farrell is acutely aware of. For him “performing in the big games under pressure is top of the agenda” and something, he said, “we’ll be addressing straight from the word go.”
That’s what makes the opening 20 minutes of this contest so important. Ireland can’t afford to allow Wales settle and must find a way to sow seeds of doubt in their heads.
The Welsh scrum was destroyed by Ireland last November with loosehead prop Rhys Carrie suffering the ignominy of being hauled ashore before half time to save him from being yellow carded due to his inability to hold up the scrum. A few weeks later, against England in the Nations Cup, Samson Lee met the same fate.
To rectify those shortcomings, Wales have recalled the experienced duo of Wyn Jones and Tom Francis. Both are stronger scrummagers who, along with the return of talismanic Lions hooker Ken Owens, will add steel to the front row. That may only serve as a stay of execution however given the welcome return to action of Tadhg Furlong and Dave Kilcoyne off the bench. That duo have the capacity to offer Ireland a big scrum boost in the final quarter against their bench counterparts Rhodri Jones and Leon Brown.
It’s bad enough when your scrum is under pressure but, arguably, the Welsh line out was even worse last autumn, losing 19 lineouts over six games. Pivac will be hoping that the return of Owens will also bring far greater accuracy to the lineout delivery, which was wayward in his absence, and that the recalled Adam Beard will remove some of the ball winning pressure out of touch from Alun-Wyn Jones.
On the flip side, Ireland’s line out has waned to a worrying degree throughout 2020, hence the appointment of Paul O’Connell. His most immediate task is in getting the line out functioning more efficiently, especially from advantageous attacking positions in the opposition 22.
The maul is also in need of surgery as teams have successfully defended against what was once one of Ireland’s most potent weapons in not only scoring tries but in generating penalties. Given the Welsh issues out of touch, O’Connell has an opportunity to make an immediate impact but with Josh van der Flier getting the nod to start in the backrow in the absence of Caelan Doris, Ireland are down a jumper and have lost an additional line out target.
With the problems they’ve been encountering out of touch, Wales will be pleased with that.
Wales have gone back to the future in the back row by reuniting Dan Lydiate, Taulipe Faletau, and Justin Tipuric who, in tandem with recently retired captain Sam Warburton, worked brilliantly together throughout the Welsh glory days under Gatland.
During the autumn Pivac introduced the next generation of breakaways in James Botham and Shane Lewis-Hughes but, despite impressive showings from both, has bowed to pressure in recalling Lydiate who hasn’t featured since November 2018.
This smacks of desperation even if the former Lion has been putting in decent performances for the Ospreys. Throughout last year, the Welsh back line was severely handicapped by the inability of the forwards to generate any quick ball at the breakdown. It remains to be seen if this revamped combination will aid that cause.
Josh Navidi returns to the bench after injury but he is far more influential than Lydiate when it comes to cleaning out rucks and chasing turnovers.
Farrell resisted the temptation to leave Peter O’Mahony at open side and include Tadhg Beirne in the back row, opting instead for Van Der Flier.
This decision has been influenced by the fact the Leinster flanker was outstanding in the defeat of Wales only three months ago. With Beirne starting in the second row and O’Mahony also a serious poaching threat, Ireland are well served here.
Ireland will be pleased to see George North starting at outside centre, where he has never really convinced, as opposed to on the wing where he has been back to his best of late.
In the absence of regular wingers Liam Williams and Josh Adams, both excellent under the high ball, 19-year-old Louis Rhys-Zammit in his first Six Nations start and Hallom Amos, in only his second, had better be prepared for an aerial bombardment from Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray early on. They will be tested.
While Doris is a huge loss to Ireland, this Welsh team appears one selected more out of necessity than form. They will be passionate, hugely physical and massively committed but if Ireland can absorb the inevitable early onslaught and generate forward momentum, Sexton and Murray have the experience to pull the strings and suck the energy from their hosts. There is bound to be a reaction to the way sections of the Irish media, much to the annoyance of Farrell, have completely written off the Welsh challenge.
Without the raucous home support to lift them in their time of need, Ireland should have enough firepower, especially off a far superior bench, to secure a first championship win in Cardiff since 2013 even if it will be a far tighter affair than what we experienced in Dublin in November.
