Donal Lenihan: Cardiff win would set up all sorts of enticing scenarios for Ireland
Ireland head coach Andy Farrell: A win against Wales in Cardiff could lead his side onto greater things in this years' Six Nations. Picture: Donall Farmer/PA Wire
Whoever emerges triumphant at the end of this, the most extraordinary Six Nations campaign in the tournament’s history, dating back to 1883, will have mastered a lot more than just the nuances of the game.
The novelty of operating in a bio-secure bubble must be wearing thin for the players by now. Living in splendid isolation, without the distraction of fans, media, and family may have even suited some of the players at the outset of this pandemic but that day has long passed.
Not being able to leave the confines of the team hotel to enjoy a coffee and a chat with someone who has little or no interest in how Ireland will fare in the Six Nations is something the players must miss. A distraction from the day-to-day grind of a rugby-only environment is a must for some players.
Being totally separated from their family for eight weeks, especially when many are living within a 30-minute drive of Ireland’s base camp, will prove challenging, something England loose-head prop Joe Marler openly admitted by letting Eddie Jones know that, with a young family, he wasn’t prepared to do it.
Likewise, Italy’s try-scoring threat, Wasps winger Matteo Minozzi, has stepped back for similar reasons, stating that mentally he’s just not up to facing that level of isolation right now. These decisions must be respected and one sincerely hopes they won’t come against either player in the long term.
As always, England carry a massive level of expectation heading into this championship but have been compromised on a number of fronts, not least by Marler’s withdrawal, coming as it does at a time when first-choice loose-head Mako Vunipola is also ruled out due to injury.
They are also short starting tight-head Kyle Sinckler for the opening rounds due to suspension and have lost Joe Launchbury and Sam Underhill to injury. Their absence will be felt and whether their replacements can deliver the type of dominant platform Ben Youngs, Owen Farrell, and George Ford have come to rely on at half-back remains to be seen.
It certainly offers Scotland a chink of light as they attempt to beat England in Twickenham on Saturday for the first time since 1983. The Scots have flattered to deceive for so long now I’ve given up on them. Every season they seem to be strengthened by the latest South African to complete the three-year residency rule and you think they could pose a problem before falling flat on their face.
Duhan van der Merwe’s decision to fly the nest and leave Edinburgh for Worcester Warriors within weeks of winning his first cap after qualifying on residency grounds, looked appalling. Then again, when it comes to taking advantage of the residency rule, we in Ireland are in no position to preach, having liberally availed of the same vehicle in recent years. Thankfully that route has narrowed significantly with the welcome extension of the residency period to five years.
Of far more significance to Gregor Townsend was the decision of Bath centre Cameron Redpath, whose father Bryan won 60 caps and captained Scotland regularly in the 1990s, to declare for the Scots having played all his underage rugby with England and, of even more significance, had been part of Eddie Jones’s squad. He is a serious addition and must be in line to win his first Scottish cap in this campaign.
France too have suffered on the injury front, not least with Romain Ntamack ruled out for the opening games, including the trip to Dublin, due to a broken jaw. His blossoming half-back partnership with Antoine Dupont elevated the French to a new level last season.
That said, 22-year-old Matthieu Jalibert has the potential to be every bit as effective and excelled when starting in the second-string French side that brought England to extra time in that riveting Autumn Nations Cup final in Twickenham last December. If the French manage to hit the ground running in Rome on Saturday, they will be in a good place heading to the Aviva Stadium for that pivotal game against Ireland.
France have not only been the most improved Tier 1 nation since the World Cup, they have also played the best rugby, with the most balanced and varied game plan. Their defence, under the inspirational Shaun Edwards, was transformed with the former League great seemingly achieving the impossible by getting into the heads of the French players and creating an insatiable appetite for an aspect of the game they viewed as an optional extra for a long time.
The other significant difference is in the aerobic capacity of their forwards.
They have always had monsters at their disposal but their ability and desire to last the pace and work hard at the unglamorous aspects of the game was questionable.
That is another area the new French management has addressed with a younger breed of strong, explosive forwards continuing to emerge. If that trend continues, the French will become even more difficult to beat.
The nature of that Nations Cup final in Twickenham must now act as a catalyst for the more experienced side they will be sending to London in round four in a game that, right now, stands out as the championship decider, even if there’s a possibility one of those sides may have suffered a loss by that stage. From an Irish perspective, we will be hoping that comes in Dublin.
England remain the bookies’ favourites but with the ever-improving French searching for a first Six Nations title since 2010, the margin for error open to Eddie Jones has narrowed. Factor in the loss of the experienced forwards mentioned above with the fact that key Saracens such as Farrell, Maro Itoje, Jamie George, and Elliot Daly have played no rugby whatsoever since early December, having been relegated to the second tier of the English championship that has failed to start.
Billy Vunipola, who by his own admission is better off playing matches than training, has only featured in one game in two months and that, a friendly against Ealing Trailfinders. These issues will impact on England’s efficiency but it is up to others to capitalise on them with the French best placed to do so.
Wales are dangerous, if for no other reason their backs are not only pressed against the wall, but the wall itself is in danger of falling down pretty soon.
Financially, their regions are in crisis with mounting bank debt to be serviced and a reduction in squad sizes for next season inevitable.
Each region has £5.5m (€6.2m) to pay back and they will have to do so at a rate of more than £1m (€1.1m) a year, starting from July. The Welsh players have a cause. Many are fighting for new contracts, and a reversal in a slump that has seen them win only three of their last 10 internationals and those against Italy, twice, and Georgia.
Unfortunately, Italy, who have lost 29 of their last 30 Six Nations contests, are set to remain as the tournament’s whipping boys.
Perhaps the only light relief to come their way recently was confirmation during that Autumn Nations Cup that Georgia are in less of a position to offer any meaningful challenge to the established order, thus removing talk of their inclusion in the championship at the expense of the Azzurri. However, the pressure on Italy to register a first championship win since February 2015 is mounting.
Right now, Ireland appear the best of the rest but must open the campaign with a victory at the Principality Stadium where we haven’t won in the championship since 2013. That has to be rectified Sunday against a Welsh side short on confidence.
This Irish team is good enough to achieve that even if the loss of Caelan Doris comes as a blow.
The manner of the win over Scotland in December, when the pressure was growing on everyone after a shocking second-half showing against Georgia, not only left Ireland in a good place for when they regrouped last week but provides a decent starting point heading to Cardiff.
An opening win would tee things up perfectly for the arrival in Dublin of the exciting French who had our measure in Paris in the rearranged Six Nations outing last October.
As always in this championship, opening the campaign with a win, especially away from home, provides the shot in the arm to propel a side to greater things. Given the additional complications the players and management are dealing with at present, Ireland have the perfect opportunity to light a fire under their challenge. And a win in Cardiff would do just that.
