Donal Lenihan: This has now developed into a must-win game for Ireland

Donal Lenihan looks at three key areas in Ireland's Autumn Nations Cup third-place play-off with Scotland

Iain Henderson, Josh van der Flier and Caelan Doris with the 20ft Christmas tree in Aviva Stadium launched in honour of St Francis Hospice and its Charity Christmas appeal ahead of Ireland’s Guinness Series finale against Scotland. This year, Aviva Ireland’s national charity partner, St Francis Hospice, is calling on the public to sponsor a light for €6 on its ‘Tree of Life’, in memory of a loved one or for somebody experiencing difficulty in their lives. Visit aviva.ie/tree-of-life for more information. Picture: Dan Sheridan

1. Back to basics

The debate has raged throughout this Autumn Nations Cup series as to the quality of rugby on offer with kicking the dominant feature as space to attack has become ever more difficult to find. Gregor Townsend is in his fourth season as Scotland head coach yet is still presiding over a team in evolution.

Andy Farrell’s attack has failed to function and has been appallingly poor on converting clearcut scoring chances into points. The most glaring of those was the four on two overlap butchered ten metres from the Georgian line that denied Keith Earls a straightforward try. If you can’t deliver against a scrambling Georgian defence, what chance do you have against England, South Africa or New Zealand?

With defences more suffocating that ever before, it’s not an easy fix. The bad news is, things aren’t about to get any easier on that front. Townsend was a mercurial player and his vision created a brilliant attacking fluidity to the Glasgow Warriors team that won a Guinness PRO12 title in 2015.

Townsend learned the hard way when attempting to replicate that style at international level. He wanted Scotland to pass more than any other side and play at a tempo that no opponent could match. It all sounded great but proved impractical, especially when operating off a deficient set piece.

Scotland failed to emerge from the pool stage of the 2019 World Cup, losing to Ireland and Japan. Townsend recognised things had to change. He recruited former Ospreys and NSW Waratahs’ defence coach Steve Tandy who turned them into an outstanding defensive unit in the Six Nations, conceding the least number of tries in the tournament.

Former French international prop Pieter de Villiers has worked wonders with Rory Sutherland and Zander Fagerson, the starting props on Saturday, their efforts being supported off the bench with the equally powerful and experienced WP Nel and newly qualified loosehead Oli Kebble. It’s a long time since Scotland had anything like that depth available in the front row.

Townsend has gone back to basics and is reaping the rewards. Farrell needs to recognise that until he does likewise and delivers a solid platform from which to launch his phase play, this Irish team will continue to struggle. 

That base proved the catalyst for the comprehensive 27-3 dismantling of the Scots in Yokohama just over a year ago and has to be the starting point for achieving anything like that dominance on Saturday.

2. Poachers’ delight

On the assumption that your setpiece is functioning and producing decent ball, the way you use it dictates how effective you are as a team in stressing the opposition and scoring points.

The options are straightforward. You either kick, pass, or carry into contact. In most instances now, a high percentage of kicks are designed to be contested with a view to either regaining possession, or forcing the receiver into making an error.

The ability to hold onto the ball was prioritised under Joe Schmidt with his side regularly managing to retain possession through 20 plus phases. That either wore out the opposition, left them short of defenders or forced them to concede penalties. 

With so many teams now having a variety of big ball carriers up front, the collisions are enormous and the ability to boss the breakdown dictates whether you win or lose games. Ireland have gone backwards in this regard and were blown away in this key sector against England. Farrell is also aware that Scotland have become far more effective here, even since last February’s outing.

It’s something which Peter O’Mahony highlighted earlier in the week. “The big thing is probably our breakdown. It’s something that we’ve spoken about all week. We were certainly trying hard but our accuracy there, it doesn’t matter what you have in place, that part of the game has to be immaculate if you want to do everything else in the game”.

Sam Underhill and Tom Curry - two pocket rockets who operate close to the ground - wreaked havoc in Twickenham. The new interpretation by referees at the breakdown favours the poacher in two key instances. 

Once you get hands on the ball post tackle, and are supporting your own body weight, you will immediately be rewarded with either a turnover or a penalty. The poacher no longer has to survive the dangerous clean out and that makes him far more effective. 

Ireland had nobody in the same class in that respect and will be thrilled to see that Hamish Watson, a highly effective groundhog on a par with the England duo, is rested for Saturday’s encounter. 

In all of Ireland’s games this autumn, they have been far too slow in supporting the ball carrier or kick receiver. That has to change on Saturday with their work at the breakdown far more accurate and clinical. If they fall down on that front again, Scotland will inflict pain.

3. Clarity of thought

It’s clear at this stage that the heads up rugby Farrell has granted his players a licence to play just doesn’t appear to be working. In order to capitalise on opportunities when they arise, players not only need to make decisions on the hoof but also maximise the return with pinpoint execution. Time and again over the last few weeks that is where Ireland have fallen down.

With Johnny Sexton restored to out half for the first time since the comprehensive win over Wales and Robbie Henshaw back in midfield, Ireland’s decision making process, on both sides of the ball, should be a lot better.

Sexton rankled at the suggestion during the week that no decipherable progress has been made in terms of showing a clear identity and style that defines this team. The players must now back up his comments where it matters most, on the field of play.

We hear that great things are being achieved behind closed doors in training but the proving ground for that is in the performance on match day.

The only evidence of that was against a poor Welsh side and, even then, Ireland left several scoring chances behind, a recurring theme throughout this seven-week window.

Having operated under a very prescribed system in the Schmidt regime, it now appears that the leap towards having the freedom to play on the hoof isn’t to everyone’s liking. With ten new caps and 40 different players utilised in the eight games under Farrell, this squad is finding it difficult to find a common ground that plays to everyone’s skills and strengths.

As a result of the substandard second half against Georgia, this has now developed into a must-win game for Ireland where the performance and the result need to be right on the money.

Farrell will also be conscious of the views expressed by IRFU high performance director David Nucifora, his direct line manager, during the week that this coaching team will be judged on the outcome of the 2021 Six Nations tournament which is already just around the corner.

With an opening fixture on the road against a Welsh side also looking for redemption and tough home assignments against France and England, made even more difficult to negotiate without a voracious home support, that campaign promises to be extremely challenging.

All the more reason why Ireland need to sign off on this prolonged period of interrupted preparation with a performance reflective of their ability and time together. Problem is, that is exactly what Scotland will also be hoping to achieve.