Donal Lenihan: Why everyone wants to avoid Argentina in World Cup draw

EMBRACING SUCCESS: Argentina head coach Mario Ledesma celebrates with Santiago Carreras after Saturday's historic win over New Zealand
As the clock counts down towards the pool draw for the 2023 World Cup in France on December 14, Argentina offered a timely reminder to the rugby world what they have to offer.
Placed in band three of the draw, they are the opposition everyone will want to avoid, especially after what transpired in Sydney last Saturday.
Once again Argentinian rugby have been left dangling on the periphery of the world game with the break up of the Super Rugby model banishing their only professional club franchise, the Jaguares, to oblivion. On top of that, prior to last weekend's Test, the national side hadn’t played since the 47-17 pool win over USA in Kumagaya, Japan, all of 402 days earlier.
Due to the coronavirus, the Argentine squad have had a torrid time, enduring lockdowns at home in Argentina and Uruguay before quarantining in Australia for a further two weeks on their arrival there.
Some of the players and staff haven’t seen their families in four months with 12 of their party testing positive for Covid-19 during the period.
As always with Argentina, adversity only serves to bring them closer together. Since arriving in Australia for Tri-Nations action a month ago, they prepared by playing two warm up games against Argentina A. Apart from the handful of European-based players, that was the only competitive rugby their players had experienced in months.
Nobody gave them any chance of defeating New Zealand last Saturday, even more so when Ian Foster recalled all the big guns to the starting line up after the 24-22 defeat to the Wallabies in Brisbane the previous week. You have to go back nine years to 2011, when they lost to South Africa in Port Elizabeth and Australia at SunCorp Stadium, to find the last time the All Blacks lost consecutive Test matches.
The best Argentina had to show from the previous 29 encounters against New Zealand was a draw in the second Test from their first ever series against them back in 1985. Given the unprecedented build-up to this one, nobody saw the 25-15 result coming.
In a week when it was confirmed that a revamped Super Rugby competition will become the sole preserve of five teams each from Australia and New Zealand, the Argentine players were keen on sending a clear message to the World Rugby authorities - where do we go from here?
The majority of their overseas-based players returned to Buenos Aires back in 2016 when the Jaguares were invited into Super Rugby for the first time.
Regular exposure to the best provincial sides New Zealand, Australia and South Africa had to offer represented a major step forward.
Once again their players find themselves in limbo with the likelihood they will now be scattered to the four winds and chase professional contracts with clubs in England and France.
On the basis of the performance of a number of their younger players last weekend, there will be a queue of suitors waiting in the wings once this Tri-Nations campaign is over.
Despite the fact that only 9,063 were in attendance in the magnificent new Bankwest Stadium in north Sydney, the atmosphere generated by the Argentine supporters was quite amazing. Even more inspirational was the television pictures relayed from the section in the stand occupied by the Argentine players outside the matchday squad as they sang and danced in unison throughout the final quarter with their side in a commanding position.
Fifteen points ahead, with the clock entering time added on, reduced many in the Argentine coaches box to tears, not least their former hooker and head coach Mario Ledesma.
Alongside him, former Leinster and Wallaby head coach Michael Cheika, who is operating in a consultancy capacity for this tournament.
Given the many jibes he suffered at the hands of the New Zealand media and public during his time at the helm of Australia, you can bet he enjoyed this win every bit as much as the Argentinians.
The one thing we can say with certainty is that nobody will want them in their World Cup pool when the draw is made next month.
Ireland are ranked in band two, which means there’s a distinct possibility we could end up in a pool with South Africa or New Zealand along with Argentina. With only two countries advancing to the knockout phase, that’s the last thing we need.
You have to go back to the South African tour, in the summer of 2016, to find the last time Ireland lost back-to-back Tests. Joe Schmidt’s party were decidedly unlucky to lose a captivating series 2-1 after recording Ireland’s first-ever success over the Springboks on South African soil, winning the opening test 20-26 in Cape Town despite having CJ Stander sent off after only 23 minutes.
That tour proved instrumental in building Ireland’s strength in depth and played a key role in delivering a first-ever win over New Zealand in Chicago the following November along with a rare Grand Slam in 2018.
One of the key outcomes from the tour was confirmation that Paddy Jackson, who started all three Tests in the injury-enforced absence of Johnny Sexton, had finally served his apprenticeship and was capable of stepping into Sexton’s boots when required.
With Jackson out of the picture by the time the 2019 World Cup rolled around, a series of outstanding performances from Joey Carbery, for Leinster and Ireland, earmarked him as not only Sexton’s back up but heir apparent.
Carbery’s well-documented injury travails have scuppered that succession plan, for the time being at least, and Andy Farrell is now left addressing the void. Jack Carty started the pool defeat to Japan in Shizuoka 14 months ago but has fallen out of favour with the new head coach.
Sexton’s untimely hamstring injury against Wales last Friday now forces Farrell’s hand. When sitting down to select the team for Saturday's visit to Twickenham, he must decide if the time has come to offer former England U20 Billy Burns his first start (HIA protocols permitting), or hand the No 10 shirt to Ross Byrne.
Byrne will not look back with any pleasure on his international debut against the same opposition when Ireland were hammered 57-15 in the World Cup warm-up game in August 2019.
That defeat not only cost Byrne his place in the squad but proved a massive psychological blow prior to the tournament that Ireland never really recovered from.
The Autumn Nations Cup is tailor-made for exposing the next layer to meaningful international competition and, in that respect, it doesn’t come much tougher than this. The absence of Sexton has now afforded Farrell the opportunity to promote the outstanding James Ryan to the captaincy role he has been destined for.
It appears certain to me that Ryan will lead Ireland at the next World Cup, and was only a matter of time before he would be asked to step up. If Sexton is ruled out for the remainder of this series, Farrell will be in a perfect position to observe and access the new man in the role with a view towards making his appointment permanent for the Six Nations.
Either way, Ryan will benefit massively from the experience even if he faces a baptism of fire at the helm next Saturday. England have enjoyed a marked superiority over Ireland in our last thee encounters, not least in the physical stakes.
Ireland have won 19 of the last 20 Tests played at the Aviva Stadium, the exception when England powered to an emphatic 20-32 win in the 2019 Six Nations contest.
That raw physicality was on show once again in the 24-12 loss in Twickenham last March just prior to lockdown.
Farrell knows exactly the approach England will take on Saturday. The question remains as to whether Ireland have found a way to deal with what’s coming down the line.