Ronan O'Gara: Stockdale’s mulligan, Scotland’s defence and those fast-twitch fibres…
A lot of the focus at the Aviva Stadium this evening will be on James Lowe but it’s also an opportunity for out-half Billy Burns, pictured alongside Johnny Sexton during Ireland's Captain's Run. Picture: INPHO/Dan Sheridan
How quickly the ground beneath you can shift. Two years ago next week, Steve Hansen was stirring it up by wondering how Ireland would handle being the No 1 ranked side in the world.
At this moment in time, Andy Farrell’s Ireland are third, at best, among Europe’s Six Nations – tonight’s opponents Wales might and Scotland, who finished on the same points, certainly would challenge that fact.
Gregor Townsend’s project has got rather interesting. Which is more staggering? That Scotland conceded a mere 59 points in the Six Nations this year – the least by far – or that it has largely gone unnoticed? Championship winners England were next best in the Points Against category on 77. Ireland conceded 102 points.
A couple of years ago when the Crusaders were facing the Waratahs, I met the former Ospreys head coach Steve Tandy.
He had already acquired quite a reputation for the ‘Tahs ‘blue wall’ defence and has progressed since to become an impressive defence specialist. Getting him into the Scottish set-up last year was a serious piece of business by Townsend and the SRU.
In their first Autumn Nations Cup game, Scotland go to Rome. On Sunday week, they entertain France at Murrayfield. It is one to keep an eye on.
That Ireland and Andy Farrell go into the competition opener tonight against Wales in a slightly better frame of mind than their opponents is no great boast. Nor of any great significance in a competition where performance might count for more than results in the longer term.
For Farrell and his opposite number Wayne Pivac, these are games to build a squad and put their stamp on it. Neither set-up has fully moved beyond the large shadow of former head coaches. Wales have lost Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards, Ireland have moved gingerly into the post-Schmidt era.
Presence in sport should never be underestimated. The new ticket is now in that post-honeymoon phase when things can be quite humdrum and momentum will be difficult for the fact that players may struggle to get engaged with a one-off tournament.
No-one is sure how engaged the sporting public will be in this Autumn Nations Cup. However bizarre that might sound, the Six Nations has just finished, there’s another around the corner and a Champions Cup campaign schedule in between.
Of course, it’s important in terms of greasing the wheels of the international game, but it’s a wait and see approach for everyone. Anticipation is in short supply.
Pivac let his defence coach and friend Byron Hayward go this week, which is a difficult thing to do. Wales are after five losses on the bounce, the smoke signals from the set-up are not good and having Gatland in the rear-view mirror doesn’t offer much comfort either.
By comparison, Andy Farrell’s position is positively utopian. It offers an early opportunity to work the Paris creases out of the system. It was claimed Ireland’s accuracy against Galthie’s France cost them the game, which isn’t true.
France’s pressure forced those errors and to suggest otherwise – or that Ireland were closer than the scoreline indicates – is grasping at straws.
Jacob Stockdale has had his mulligan now. Any repeat of Paris and the 15 jersey becomes a distraction. It’s one thing two players scrapping over a starting jersey, but quite another when management is looking around the room for someone to put their hand up or putting square pegs in round holes.
You’ve stability for a decade, a talented replacement in Jordan Larmour who’s gone down injured and an alternative like Stockdale who’s raising red flags.
Robbie Henshaw has been tried there, against England, and while it didn’t work it wasn’t because of his shortcomings. It might still be an option when you have Ringrose, Aki, and Farrell all available. Farrell has a lot of swiss knives available in the backline though not many of those skillsets are suitable for transfer to full-back. In terms of alternatives, the big question is how is Plan B’s kicking game? Keith Earls could play 15. He’s excelled at 11, 13 and 14.
Fifteen would have been a very interesting proposition. However, one has to concede his kicking game would be open to scrutiny.
There’s some interesting science behind the respective attributes of a ten and a fifteen, and why they are not readily interchangeable. Of course, the likes of Richie Mo’unga or Beauden Barrett can do it because they have exceptional speed as well as a super kicking game, but not every ten has that. Exhibit A right there.
But it is interesting how few players have the capacity to be, simultaneously, explosive quick and also capable of kicking duties. The issue is fast-twitch fibres.
Some tens or fifteens are so rapid that, genetically-speaking, they find timing that bit more difficult when they have to settle their body and muscle behaviour (and bring their heartrate right down) for kicking penalties. Think Usain Bolt. You fancy him to kick a penalty over from 25m?
For instance, Beauden Barrett often looks like he is buzzing – as in too wound up physically, coming in to kick a penalty. That’s not always good. Examine the requirements of good goal-kicking, and much of it comes down to timing. Because the body is full of fast-twitch muscles, that can present issues when the body and mind have to slam on the brakes for kicking.
A lot of the focus at the Aviva Stadium this evening will be on James Lowe but it’s also an opportunity for out-half Billy Burns, who can’t have had much time in the ‘environment’, as we call it. Ten is one of the issues management is looking to address over the course of the next four games. At the moment, it’s still Jonny Sexton and then a massive pause, at least until Joey Carbery comes back into contention.
Ireland may rotate between the two Byrnes and Burns in the meantime. Until Carbery is back in the mix the only other question is whether Ian Madigan gets a look in.
I love Friday night games, most players do. Sunday nights? Not so much. La Rochelle is in the midst of 18 Top 14 weekends in a row, and we go to Paris this Sunday night to meet Stade Francais. By the time we finished the game last Sunday night at home to Clermont Auvergne, and had a couple of glasses of Bordeaux afterwards, it was after midnight.
It’s tough to settle those twitchy fibres on these nights! 3am comes and goes. Monday comes too soon. Tuesday is really Monday postponed, but somewhere in all this you’ve won a game but lost a day.
The French national side opens their autumn Sunday in Vannes against Fiji before that trip to Edinburgh. You can taste the confidence in the air here.
It’s building, and the positive PR machine in the press has been cranked up.
They have a lot of good players, a lovely age profile, a coach who understands the tactical side of the game and is surrounded with good man managers. Suddenly French rugby has become a very serious proposition.
