Irish Examiner view: US parties all lawyered up and ready to rock

In theory, we should know the outcome of the US presidential election by the middle of next week. But if the counsel of Roy Cohn prevails, the close election may be still be contested long after that

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. We wait to see the degree to which the polarisation of American society has continued under a 46th presidency which pledged in 2020 not to divide but to unify.

By this time next week, we should know the outcome of the closely contested US presidential election. Or, in this battle of marginal gains and lawyered-up political parties, perhaps not.

In 2020, the result was called for Joe Biden with confirmation of Pennsylvania’s verdict four days after the vote on November 3. The ‘Stop the Steal’ campaign had started as soon as voting concluded, and we all know the outcome of that.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton conceded to Donald Trump the morning after the election. 

She had no choice. She was comprehensively beaten. 

Then, as now, the Democratic candidate had the Obamas on the stump with her. Then, as now, showbiz and celebrity had united in support. All to no avail, as the majority of the American electorate decided they did not like Clinton personally and were unconvinced by her performance in office.

As we enter the final weekend, the apparent advantage of Kamala Harris, if it exists at all, is so thin as to fall well within the percentages of error for opinion polling. Anything other than a demonstrable Republican victory is likely to generate a raft of legal challenges which will make the complex, and controversial, Bush v Gore supreme court case over Florida recounts in 2000 look like a walk in the park. Some high-profile courtroom fights, one involving Trump tub thumper Elon Musk, are already under way.

No one knows who will be best at getting their vote out in the seven battleground states — Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada — which are said to hold the key to the election and whether the better-heeled organisation of the Democrats will overcome the determination of the Maga faithful.

What cannot be denied is the strangeness of the contest which has much more to do with feelings and identity than matters of policy.

Harris bounced back from the near-disastrous decision of Biden to attempt to run for a second term. But her campaign remains dogged by the failures of the administration of which she is a part, especially in the economy.

The Democrats’ Middle East policy, and its reluctance to rein in Israel’s retaliation for the Hamas attack of October 7, has also disappointed some of the party’s natural constituency.

However, the idea that Palestine’s prospects may improve under a Trump presidency really has to be despatched to the land of make-believe.

The other touchstone subject of immigration holds no advantages for the vice president.

Voters have made their minds up by now, and we wait to see the degree to which the polarisation of American society has continued under a 46th presidency which pledged in 2020 “not to divide but to unify”.

In The Apprentice, the movie biopic of Trump much hated by its subject, his mentor Roy Cohn, a vindictive attack dog legal counsel, gives him three pieces of advice on which to base his career.

“The first rule is: Attack, attack, attack.

“Rule two: Admit nothing, deny everything.

“Rule three: No matter what happens, you claim victory and never admit defeat.”

By Tuesday and Wednesday, we will see whether any, or all, of those maxims are being deployed in furtherance of the career of Donald Trump and the feelings of his many millions of supporters.

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Last men standing in title race

By the time you read this we will know whether Shelbourne or Shamrock Rovers were the last men standing in what everyone agrees has been an epic League of Ireland title race, certainly one of the best in memory.

Shamrock Rovers were the defending champions while Shels, under the sometimes abrasive guidance of Irish legend Damien Duff, topped the table for most of the campaign.

The entertainment has been marvelous, and the craic as good as it gets, but the last-day drama doesn’t obscure the financial chaos which attends the league. Seven of the 10 Premier Division teams lost around €8m last season, nearly three times as much as during the previous campaign.

The sums may shrink into insignificance compared to the Premier League next door but there is a noticeably increased appetite among investors. If Hollywooders Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney can do it for Wrexham, what price Drogheda United or Cork City?

Where some people see difficulties, others see the potential for growth and a regular route into European football.

“It is,” say the sages, “all about getting the product right.”

A couple more thrilling seasons like the one we have just had and the picture might look very attractive for fans, and for the league.

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Scrapping electoral vow of silence 

The decision to scrap the Irish pre-election moratorium on broadcasters which prevents reporting from 2pm on the day before polls open until they close is an overdue recognition that the media genie is out of the bottle. And, indeed, has been for nearly 20 years since the arrival of the modern version of the digital world.

The convention prevented publishing and discussion of electoral events during a sensitive period when they might affect the mindset of the electorate.

This is an old-fashioned view which has been dropped because “society and technology has changed”, says Aoife MacEvilly, commissioner for broadcasting and video on demand with Coimisiún na Meán.

The next general election, the date for which is said to be awaiting imminent confirmation, will be the first to be freed from the restriction. It will, instead, be replaced with a newly-defined duty of care during the “critical” election period.

Broadcasters will be asked to scrutinise information relating to the election that it believes “has been circulated with the intention of misleading or confusing voters or that is likely to mislead or confuse voters”.

It will be interesting to see how this caveat, which carries no legal sanction, will play out in the real world where it is predominantly social media companies which act as host to wild assertions and rumours largely without any intervention.

The media commission says it will engage with the relevant platforms, which operate under the EU-wide Digital Services Act, to ensure that they are prepared to stop “mis- information or disinformation” and give prominence to “impartial providers of information on elections”.

The commission’s rules also state that broadcasters should take additional care to “ensure that opinions expressed by programme contributors do not interfere with the electoral process by making a false or misleading claim with respect to election procedures”.

In the guidelines to be published shortly after the date of the election is announced, broadcasters are also asked not to report on opinion polls or exit polls during voting hours.

Monitoring coverage and electoral integrity will be a significant challenge for the expanded watchdog and its performance will be a test of its effectiveness. Its predecessor, the Broadcasting Authority of Ireland, had approximately 40 staff but the new entity, created 21 months ago, now has a team of 200 with five commissioners.

The new body is being funded by the exchequer and is developing a levy system which will support an annual budget of €50m. Its remit includes public interest journalism, including reporting on courts and local authorities, and it is charged with protecting people, especially children, from harmful online content.

This is not the last protocol and practice which will be changed by the impact of ubiquitous, always on, technology. Pressures are mounting on the ability of authorities to control information about identities in court cases and the consequences for civil disorder of establishing an information vacuum in highly charged circumstances.

These challenges are only going to mount and will not be diminished by court penalties implemented to set an example to transgressors.

The election may be the first of a number of ordeals by fire for Coimisiún na Meán.