Irish Examiner view: Cop28 eating the elephant a bite at a time

Mon, 04 Dec, 2023 - 02:00

Leo Varadkar has been heavily criticised for his choice of words recently, even when his intentions have been good. He may even be tempted to offer up the second line of the famous Nina Simone/Animals hit: “Oh Lord, please don’t let me be misunderstood.”

It is understandable therefore that he might choose to avoid the rhetorical sideshow conjured up by climate campaigners and the media at Cop28 in Dubai about whether political leaders should use this particular platform to commit to “phasing out” rather than “phasing down” fossil fuels.

Noticeably, it is those without responsibilities to an electorate who are most vociferous to set a firm, and unattainable, date for the complete elimination of their use. Expecting or demanding deadline sign-up at this forum, in this location, was unrealistic.

Ireland has set highly ambitious targets to cut emissions. It has placed those into law. It has published coherent plans. There was a €14bn Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund announced in this year’s budget and a Future Ireland Fund; a carbon tax; installation of electronic vehicle charging points; boosts for wind power.

Yet we are falling behind with our timetable. Ireland will miss its first carbon budget landmark in 2025, placing great pressure on its objectives for 2030.

The Taoiseach acknowledged this when he spoke in the United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s top oil and gas producers. Mr Varadkar also said there are “legitimate concerns” around the transition for the average citizen.

“With the cost-of-living and high energy prices, many worry about how much the transition will cost and what it will mean for their jobs and incomes and living standards,” he added.

Although this might be interpreted as a nod in favour of the middle classes, experienced politicians are aware of the accusation that the road to net zero can run through the homes of the poor and those on low fixed incomes.

It is they who often suffer the worst housing stock with inadequate insulation and have the greatest reliance on traditional, oil or solid fuel, forms of heating. They have the least financial scope to transfer to clean and efficient energy or manage the payback periods entailed in a transformation to decarbonised homes.

“We must do everything in our power to make the transition just, protecting the vulnerable and leaving nobody behind,” said Mr Varadkar.

The financial infrastructure and support are not in place to accelerate this change, and setting an artificial D-Day which will inevitably have to be junked will entrench resistance and promote scepticism, not facilitate progress.

While there was a lot of talk last week about the “elephant in the room” we should also remember, with apologies to our vegetarian and vegan readers, the old advice about the best way to eat a pachyderm.

The answer is “one bite at a time”. This is an approach that should commend itself to environmental campaigners.

Price for rugby just got higher

It’s time for rugby to undergo a radical overhaul, wrote our correspondent Donal Lenihan 13 days ago, referencing the potential consequences of a class action being taken by hundreds of players against the English and Welsh unions and the international governing body over the incidence of life-affecting concussion cases.

Up until the weekend, with a few exceptions — Steve Thompson, Ryan Jones, Alix Popham — the names of those involved have been relatively unknown. But no longer.

The full list of 226 named claimants suing over neurological injuries has now been made public following a court decision. And many of them are famous: Phil Vickery, tighthead prop, former England captain and celebrity chef; Gavin Henson, flamboyant Welsh back; free-scoring flanker and Wales skipper Colin Charvis. British and Irish Lions all; men in their 40s and early 50s. Many years ahead of them.

Their argument is that those who oversee the sport failed to warn them of the cumulative impact of thousands of sub-concussive blows. The case could take years to reach court and the argument will be long and hard. When American football settled with 18,000 ex-players 10 years ago it established a fund which would be valued at just under €1bn today, plus agreeing to pay for medical examinations and research.

These are sums that would literally drive rugby out of business. But before then many will calculate that the game, without change, is not worth the risk.

Climate compo

While we might argue about the quantum provided by various countries — Ireland and the UK contributing more than the United States seems out of kilter — the creation of the new “loss and damage” fund at Cop28 seems an issue on which we can give at least two hearty cheers.

The fund aims to contribute to offsetting the consequences of climate change beyond what people can adapt to and was first proposed by the beleaguered South Pacific archipelago of Vanuatu in 1991. It is a recognition that some of those countries most affected, particularly through the impact of rising seas and tempestuous weather, are the least responsible for contributing to global warming.

Ireland has contributed €25m in kick-starter finance while the UAE provided $92m, as did Germany as part of an overall EU package of €225m, while Britain gave €47m, and the US around €20m.

Other large countries such as Australia and India are still to chip in. Total initial commitments total some €400m and the sums will be administered by the World Bank.

Some of the debate in Dubai has focussed on health issues arising from climate change with the warning that the covid-19 pandemic has left African doctors and nurses unable to cope with increasing numbers of disease outbreaks — 158 so far this year including cholera and dengue fever — and critically short of the capacity to manufacture vaccines on the continent with only 1% of supply being produced internally.

This imbalance should haunt us, as should the quote from England’s monarch that “we are taking the natural world outside balanced norms and limits and into dangerous uncharted territory. We are carrying out a vast frightening experiment.”

During the worldwide spread of covid there was an expression to the effect that no one was safe until everyone was safe. In epidemiology that still holds true.