Irish Examiner view: Numbers help to divine political future

Catholic majority in Northern Ireland for the first time since its foundation will have far-reaching political impact

Northern Ireland needs clarity in the debate about its future, and the starting place for that is the resumption of political and power-sharing activity at Stormont. 

While it is powerfully symbolic, it is possible to overestimate the political impact of the fact that, for the first time since the North’s foundation, a century ago, there are now more Catholics than Protestants there.

The census figures released this week showed 32% of the population defined themselves as British only, 29% as Irish, and 20% as Northern Irish. 

And 45.7% of inhabitants are Catholic or from a Catholic background, compared with 43.48% from Protestant or other Christian backgrounds. 

The 2011 census figures were 45% Catholic and 48% Protestant. Nineteen per cent, a significant number given the historical context, declare they have no religion at all. This is an increase of 14% from 2011 and it goes some way to explain the increasing success of Alliance politics in recent years.

All of this means that political futures in the six counties will no longer be determined by the old Protestant/Catholic head-to-head, but by three or four blocs that may agree on some aspects of fiscal policy, but not others; may be pro-Europe; may have concerns about housing, prices, education, and health-service charges . . . in short, the range of things that tend to win elections.

A Catholic majority in the North does not necessarily convert to a majority in favour of a united Ireland, although enthusiasm for that is growing as Britain becomes more fragmented, and poorer. 

Northern Ireland is the UK’s poorest region, which stimulates thoughts as to whether people would be better off with unification, and a corresponding fast lane back into Europe.

The country needs clarity in the debate about its future, and the starting place for that is the resumption of political and power-sharing activity at Stormont. 

This means, also, that concessions will have to be made, by both sides, about the protocol. Failing that, and with the lack of appetite for a winter election, matters may drag into 2023. 

If that happens, there are likely to be further electoral setbacks for unionists.