Irish Examiner view: Election in Kenya is fraught with danger of violence

Kenya's National Cohesion and Integration Commission warns of the potential for conflict in the run-up to next month's poll

Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga at an election rally around Kawangware in Nairobi last Saturday. Picture: Brian Inganga/AP

Presidential elections in Kenya are fraught affairs and the latest one is also in danger of being characterised by violence. Kenya has had a difficult history with disputed elections as evidenced by the poll in 2007 which resulted in over 1,000 deaths. 

According to a report by the National Cohesion and Integration Commission, the potential for violence in next month’s poll has a 53% likelihood.

Politicians in the east African country have a reputation for inflaming ethnic tensions and stoking up historical grievances over land. Experts also say political gripes turn to violence especially when citizens do not trust the bodies managing the elections. The commission reports highlighted that just 26% of Kenyans trust the electoral commission and 23% trust the judiciary. Fears abound that this election will spark violence, as was the case in the 2017 presidential election after the supreme court annulled the results.

Uhuru Kenyatta defeated Raila Odinga but the supreme court ordered a re-run after discrepancies were uncovered. Odinga refused to participate in the second election and Kenyatta was duly elected. Considerable violence ensued.

Kenyatta is constitutionally barred from holding office for a third time and has backed Odinga this time, causing a rift in his own Jubilee Party, whose preferred candidate is deputy president William Ruto. Given the history of violence, it is feared this election has all the hallmarks of more to come.