Irish Examiner view: Opinion polls’ great irony
The aftermath of a rocket attack in Kabul. Record numbers of civilians have been killed since international forces began to leave in May allowing the Taliban to launch another bloody offensive
Comparisons can be unsettling if they highlight unwelcome possibilities. The people of Afghanistan, as they have so often been in the past, are in a grim situation. Record numbers of civilians have been killed since international forces began to leave in May allowing the Taliban to launch another bloody offensive and renew the cycle of near-permanent violence.
It is hard not to fear that something similar might happen on this island should similar circumstances present themselves - a possibility not so far-fetched as it might appear as Boris Johnson and his party barely hide their comtempt for Northern Ireland's communities.
Calls for an early border poll bring the same pressures into play albeit from a different direction. Should Britain disengage - as they have in Afghanistan - or should a border poll signal reunification it is hard not to imagine that Unionism's Taliban might react in a similar way. The scale might be different but the intent would be the same. The recent assessment, from the PSNI and M16, that Loyalist paramilitaries number around 12,000 adds to that chilling prospect.
Fate may, however, intervene to avert that catastrophe. Should opinion polls in this Republic be confirmed and Sinn Féin lead a government that eventuality would, more than likely, convince wavering voters north of the border that a 32-county entity might not best serve their interests. Ironically, electoral success for Sinn Féin south of the border might well defer, or prevent reunification.
