Immigration rhetoric is a tightrope for Government

The Government is walking an economic tightrope and voters will not thank it if Ireland cannot find the people to deliver the services and infrastructure being loudly demanded, writes Professor Theresa Reidy

A mother with her five-month-old baby and six-year-old son is escorted from the security area onto a Garda vehicle during Operation Trench. Immigration rarely features prominently at elections in Ireland but it was high up the agenda at the June 2024 local and European elections, and we can also see some hardening of attitudes in post-election surveys from general elections.  Picture: Chani Anderson

In a peculiar turn of events, the Government put immigration on the political agenda over the last few weeks. It’s a topic avoided by most governments and even some opposition parties. 

First, it was Simon Harris who made remarks about the level of migration into the state being too high. Then, Paschal Donohoe made a positive case for the economic and cultural benefits of immigration while also carefully mentioning public consent. Finally, Jim O’Callaghan joined the conversation with a series of policy papers presented at Cabinet that included changes to restrict family unification for migrants and a longer eligibility period for becoming an Irish citizen.

Immigration is notoriously complicated and covers EU and British citizens choosing to live in Ireland, people moving here on a variety of work permits and study visas, and international protection applicants (asylum seekers) who are seeking to take up temporary residence. Some classifications also include returning Irish citizens. 

The policies and procedures applying to the different groups are often complex and public debates about immigration are usually intolerant with the extremes variously declaring all immigration is bad and should be eliminated, or that immigration is so positive, there is no need to discuss it. The explanation for why the Government is raising immigration of their own volition is likely rooted in a confluence of domestic and international factors. 

The first and most deeply rooted is that voter attitudes to immigration have hardened. Growing political support for far-right parties across Europe is connected to anti-immigrant sentiment but parties of the centre have also changed their positioning and hardened their language on specific types of migration, most especially asylum seeking. 

Immigration rarely features prominently at elections in Ireland but it was high up the agenda at the June 2024 local and European elections, and we can also see some hardening of attitudes in post-election surveys from general elections. 

Just under three quarters of respondents to the 2024 National Election and Democracy Study agreed with the statement that ethnic minorities should adapt to Ireland’s way of life. That was a five-point increase on the same type of question in 2016. Not a big change but the direction is following wider EU public sentiment.

A young girl holding tightly to her teddy bears is escorted to a Garda vehicle during Operation Trench. Prediction is hazardous in politics and it is difficult to know whether there is a path to greater popularity for the government on the back of a more intolerant approach to immigration. Picture: Chani Anderson

Far-right parties are in government in several European states and have introduced more hardline policies on immigration. Political parties on all sides of the ideological spectrum are facing policy competition on immigration. The EU migration pact is the common EU policy designed to address public concerns about immigration levels but already there are critics who argue that the rules are too loose and won’t make any difference to overall numbers of immigrants. 

In the UK, immigration has been one of the most salient political issues for a decade, most research shows that stricter immigration control was an important motivating factor for pro-Brexit voters. But Brexit has been a failure in this respect, immigration numbers are up, and now angry voters are demanding more extreme measures. The Labour government has moved sharply on the issue, under intense pressure from Reform UK. 

Labour claim inspiration from the Danish model which was long held up as one of the most restrictive models in Europe, an approach routinely critiqued in years gone by for being barely compliant with international agreements. Now it is regularly cited as the model to emulate. The ground has shifted on immigration.

The Irish government is using the border with Northern Ireland as the core plank of its rationale for tightening certain migration policies here. That public attitudes to immigration have also hardened and the revised policy disposition is in happy alignment hasn’t been acknowledged. 

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That immigration is an awkward terrain for Sinn Féin is the icing on the cake for the government which is happy to watch immigration expose divisions in the new left alliance. Prediction is hazardous in politics and it is difficult to know whether there is a path to greater popularity for the government on the back of a more intolerant approach to immigration. 

In one respect, the government is following voter sentiment. But voter sentiment is fickle and often incoherent. In the same post-election studies which recorded hostile views towards immigrants, there was also strong agreement (65% of respondents) that immigrants were good for Ireland’s economy.

Mainstream parties have long been willing to accept some discontent about immigration because of its direct connection to economic growth. Ireland has critical skills shortages. The country is hugely reliant on medical staff and those with highly valuable IT skills deciding to locate in Ireland. In fact, we are competing globally to attract these people. 

Also international students are an essential part of the financial underpinning of the education system. Immigration policy is already contradictory, it seeks to encourage certain kinds of migration, wealthy international students, highly skilled graduates, but to discourage other forms of migration, most especially asylum seeking because this is seen as the cost-bearing form of immigration. 

But this proposition is itself poorly framed, partly because some of the asylum seekers are highly skilled, and partly because some of our most critical labour shortages are in sectors such as catering and care, not to mention construction which have varying skills requirements. The government is walking an economic tightrope and voters will not thank it if Ireland cannot find the people to deliver the services and infrastructure being loudly demanded.

Theresa Reidy: 'The UK Conservatives are a cautionary note on attempts to outdo the anti-immigrant rhetoric of more extreme parties.'

Perhaps an even more cautionary note is to be found in the experiences of several mainstream parties in European countries. Few have found success at the polls through attempts to outdo the anti-immigrant rhetoric of more extreme parties. 

Indeed several have seen their electoral fortunes decline even further, none more so than the UK Conservatives which face possible extinction after nearly 15 years trying to outdo the anti-immigrant rhetoric on its right flank.

• Professor Theresa Reidy is a political scientist at University College Cork