COP30: Irish experts fear the world won’t have the ambition to tackle climate change
Devastated buildings in Montego Bay, Jamaica, in the wake of Hurricane Melissa last week. Scientists warn that weather catastrophes such as hurricanes will be both stronger and more frequent due to climate change.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin was giving it the big ‘ní neart go cur le chéile’ in his speech at the COP30 climate change leaders’ summit in Brazil last week, as he stressed the need to act with “unity and with more urgency”.
But in carefully-worded remarks midway through his speech on Thursday, he said that the “spirit of common purpose is weakening” and the world’s attention is being diverted elsewhere.
“At a time when political leadership has never been more vital, there are fewer of us here in Belém, fewer leaders ready to tell it as it is,” he said.
“Climate change is unarguable. The science is undeniable. Temperatures are rising, and the clock is ticking.
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“If we are not prepared to tell our citizens the truth about this, we are failing them, and this planet, in the most profound way.
“Science cannot be denied.”
There’s a very large Donald Trump-shaped elephant in the room at this year’s COP30 as the US and other major polluters turn away from the annual conference aimed at driving consensus on essential action to both limit global warming and combat the worst effects of climate change.
Already this year, the US has again pulled out the Paris Agreement and Mr Trump recently called climate change “a con job”.
This is at the same time as scientists are saying it will be impossible to prevent the earth exceeding the key 1.5C milestone, at least temporarily, as the latest figures show the last 11 years have been the hottest ever recorded.
The devastating weather events we already see, even at home in Ireland, will only increase the longer we follow this path, according to experts.
And Europe has shown up at COP30 with a hastily-agreed, last-minute deal on cutting emissions which critics have said is much diluted and has ‘get out of jail free cards’ built in.
It all adds up to a rather weary and pragmatic mood among advocates rather than a hopeful one heading into COP30.
Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group (ICARUS), said it is very difficult to tell what can be achieved in the next two weeks, given the absence of the US and the dearth of leadership on show.
“Many delegations are at skeletal levels or not attending at all,” Professor Thorne said.
“The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of below 2C [above pre-industrial levels] and strive to keep them below 1.5c.
"And we need to get our own house in order [in Ireland].”
In theory, the COP summit is aimed at providing a place for countries to discuss solutions to climate change, including energy policies, financing schemes, or funding needs.
Nearly every summit is also attended by world leaders, meant to give an important signal that their countries are committed to the climate change goals.
This year, the absence of four of the world’s five most-polluting economies — China, the US, India, and Russia — is telling.
Beyond the country negotiations, the COP summit offers a chance for anyone to try to draw attention — or funding — to their cause.
Hundreds of side events see activists and scientists rubbing shoulders with industry lobbyists and banking heavyweights.
As host, Brazil plays a key role in setting the agenda for the summit. It has targeted a renewed focus on ending forest loss, pertinent in a country home to the Amazon rainforest.
It has also pinpointed climate finance — where richer countries support poorer ones to mitigate against climate impacts — and moving into a “post-negotiation” phase where it is less about debate and more on tangible action.
On this last point, the influence of fossil fuel lobbyists and states that produce these fuels and the stance of the US make agreement in this sphere a fraught endeavour.
But what can realistically be done at this year’s COP that could have a tangible impact in the years to come?
The experts pushing for change maintain a scepticism that the policymakers will step up to the plate, but there’s no denying the clear calls to action that are there before them.
Breffní Lennon, research fellow at University College Cork, and part of the university’s delegation at COP30, said what is realistic to try to achieve “very much depends on one’s perspective”.
“There are a variety of goals, like the delivery of robust national climate commitments based on detailed country climate action plans set in train after the Paris Agreement,” Mr Lennon said.
“There’s agreeing the global financial mechanisms needed to fund the transition to climate-neutral economies, not only for those countries that can afford it but more importantly the most vulnerable countries and communities already struggling with intersectional inequalities.
“And agreeing the nature-based solutions needed to reverse biodiversity loss, assist in reforming global food systems, while at the same time protecting indigenous land rights
Peter Thorne had a specific ask around funding as part of another role he has chairing the Global Climate Observing System.
This system does what it says on the tin, with Prof Thorne saying such things “aren’t sexy but keep things ticking over”.
“We’ve survived on American largesse for systematic observation, and for funding — and that’s gone away,” he said. “At a period when we need it the most, we risk observing the earth less well than we have been.
“One thing I’m hopeful on [at this COP] is a commitment to multilateral support for this. I think they will have to. The risk of not seeing what’s happening and the risk of not seeing early warning signs of tipping points is just too high.”
However, Breffní Lennon singled out a potential wider impact from the US stance at this year’s COP too, as well as the influence of fossil fuel industries.
“Unfortunately, the United States’ continuing status as a climate laggard may hinder negotiations and indeed may embolden those countries committed to hinder progress, essentially maintaining the fossil economy status quo,” he said.
“There is a very real danger that this year’s COP will fall far short of what is needed, given trending climate inaction sustained by misinformation campaigns by the fossil fuel lobby.”
Some of the worst impacts of climate change are currently being seen in the countries that have done the least to contribute to them and are least well equipped to deal with them.
NGOs that work on the ground in some of the world’s poorest regions are clear in their asks for COP30.
Concern Worldwide’s climate resilience advocacy adviser, Laura Bahlman, said that communities “are struggling for their very existence” in the face of climate change.
“From countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Malawi experiencing recurrent flooding, to Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia facing repeated droughts, these communities need to see the commitment of wealthier countries at COP to ensure they are able to adapt, survive and transition,” she said.
Trócaire has also put ambition, accountability, and action at the heart of its asks at COP30, as it hit out at the EU in particular for arriving to the conference with an “inadequate plan”.
Its climate justice policy and advocacy advisor Sinéad Loughran said the onus now falls on leaders to push for revised plans to deal with the reality of the climate crisis, and also get our own house in order at the same time.
“When a large historical emitter like the EU reduces its ambition, it is the poorest in the world who shoulder this burden. This is manifestly unjust,” she said.
“As we look to Ireland to negotiate for higher ambition as part of the EU at COP30, this must be matched with action at home, where just climate action takes precedence over corporate interests.”
Over the next two weeks, all eyes will be watching keenly on whether these principles actually win out, as time continues to tick inexorably on and our planet gets inevitably warmer.
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