How Jim Gavin’s presidential dream turned into Micheál Martin’s political nightmare
Fianna Fáil has since said that Jim Gavin, who was still a day away from being made the party's presidential nominee when the query landed, was asked a number of times about the overpayment issue. Picture: Conor O'Mearain/PA
On September 8, Fianna Fáil fielded a press query on Jim Gavin's property interests from the
At the time, it appeared that no alarm bells rang in the party about the query. Fianna Fáil has since said that Mr Gavin, who was still a day away from being made the party's presidential nominee when the query landed, was asked a number of times about the issue, but did not give the full details on his owing of €3,300 to a former tenant.
That would come to light last weekend, and it has seen the former Dublin GAA boss leave the presidential race in spectacular fashion.
The announcement has left Fianna Fáil with a week, probably more, of soul-searching and started the first genuine conversation about how and when Micheál Martin's reign as leader would end. And it all started with a poll.
The first poll of the campaign in any election is important in shaping a narrative. In a three-horse presidential race, it is even more so. When the first poll was carried of this presidential campaign on Sunday, it had Mr Gavin on 15%.
The flag-bearer for the party, which had effectively "won" the last general election and had polled between 20.8% and 22.8% in three elections last year, was floundering. The worst nightmares of those TDs who were, in the words of Cork North Central's Pádraig O'Sullivan, "frogmarched" out to support him were realised.
"You had a feeling on Sunday that we were probably fucked anyway," says one TD.
There had already been unhappiness and uncertainty about Mr Gavin’s candidacy before Sunday's poll, but the lunchtime debate on RTÉ’s that day sent Fianna Fáil members over the edge.
Mr Gavin had seemingly unimproved from last week's debate and had given a deeply unimpressive answer to questions on the tenancy issue.
Whereas Saturday's newspaper carried a Fianna Fáil statement saying "he does not have any recollection or records of any such dispute", Mr Gavin now seemed to accept the tenant's grievances. He said that "if it happened, I’m very sorry that it happened".
That answer prompted one Fianna Fáiler to text: "This is dangerous territory."
However, if the party faithful was spinning at seeing the debate, an interaction with the in the reception of the Montrose TV studios after the debate sent them into overdrive.
As he was pressed about whether he had broken the law, Mr Gavin cut a forlorn and lonely figure who had clearly had enough, his body language defeated and deflated.
Video of the interaction was flying around Fianna Fáil WhatsApp groups and, by that afternoon, TDs were already suggesting that Taoiseach Micheál Martin and deputy leader Jack Chambers were going to cut Mr Gavin loose.
It is understood that no such discussion was had at senior level in the party, but there was a growing understanding that questions needed to be answered and accounted for. But Fianna Fáilers questioned where the Taoiseach was.
At 5pm, one Fianna Fáil TD described Mr Martin as AWOL. They suggested that the media should tell the Taoiseach that it “clearly looks like you've abandoned your presidential candidate for this election”, stating that he had not been canvassing.
At 10.25pm, a different TD told the : “Just watch. Micheál Martin will start becoming very busy, and stay well clear of him and his campaign.
At 10:31pm, that message was overtaken as an email was sent from the Fianna Fáil press office confirming that Mr Gavin was withdrawn from the contest. No rumours, no gossip, just a simple couple of paragraphs which noticeably did not have the Fianna Fáil branding on it.
In the immediate aftermath of the Gavin disasterclass, there was fury in the Fianna Fáil backbenches. TDs saw red over the ending of the first presidential campaign the party had run in almost 30 years, one which had seen the party leader back an outsider.
On Sunday night, one TD described the situation as “mortifying”. Another questioned if the party’s leadership had begun stepping away from Mr Gavin’s campaign in the days leading up to his exit.
The anger that was already bubbling under the surface in the Fianna Fáil party reached boiling point and started spilling over, with rushes of blood to the head causing TDs and senators to start suggesting that Mr Martin was on borrowed time.
This continued on Monday, with one TD suggesting it was 50/50 whether he would still be Taoiseach come Christmas and another suggested there was "blood in the air".
TDs and senators began to look beyond Tuesday's budget to their standard weekly parliamentary party meeting. Billed as a crunch showdown, the Leinster House bubble saw rumours begin to swirl.
On Tuesday, when all attention should have been on the budget, rumours started circulating that 20 Fianna Fáil members had gathered in Jim O’Callaghan’s office for an emergency meeting. Others suggested it was James O’Connor’s office. Everyone denied that such a meeting had taken place.
On Wednesday, one senior Fianna Fáil source suggested that a “deal had been done” and that Mr Martin would be gone from January 2027, shortly after Ireland’s EU presidency.
The most common response when this was put to senior Fianna Fáil ministers was that the suggestion was “a load of bollocks”, while a junior minister questioned how such a deal would have even come about and who Mr Martin would have made it with.
However, in the hours leading up to Wednesday evening’s meeting, much of the tension dissipated as sources suggested a repeat of the party's 2021 think-in, where TDs and senators had been tipped to launch an offensive against Mr Martin.
That occasion, in the expansive Slieve Russell Hotel in Cavan, saw little in the way of danger for the Taoiseach.
“It’s going to be a bit of a damp squib,” one minister said, while a senator said there was likely to be a “lot of huffing and puffing”.
"It's Cavan 2.0," one TD sighed.
In the hours leading up to the meeting, Mr Martin hit the phones to call even his most fervent critics in a bid to show contrition.
Rather than facing his party down, an "emotional" Mr Martin apologised for his role in the debacle and committed to a review being led by TDs and senators — not leadership.
In a lengthy meeting, which concluded long after the Dáil had adjourned, 44 members of the party spoke, concluding with public expenditure minister Jack Chambers.
Mr Chambers had been the party's director of elections for Mr Gavin, and his standing in the party has taken a serious hit over the foul-up.
While he would say he regrets the manner of the withdrawal, party members privately say that they want to know more about when and how he knew about Mr Gavin's tenancy issues. They point to the budget talks rolling across the weekend as a probable distraction.
"He shouldn't have been there in the first place, given the timing, but he fucked it up," one party source said.
Perhaps the most interesting contribution came from party veteran and former ceann comhairle Seán Ó Feargháil, who suggested that the party needs to start thinking about what happens "after January 2027".
While sources are adamant that no deal has been done, they do believe that Mr Martin could be more minded to leave the leadership after the presidency of Europe concludes at the end of 2026.
On Thursday, as the dust settled, Mr Martin's leadership was not in danger, but the week's events had caused its end to have a possible date attached for the first time and his air of invincibility in the party was all but gone.
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