Budget 2026 leaves us more exposed to the ravages of climate change than ever

Spending almost four times more on subsidising fossil fuels than we do on climate change mitigation shows the utter contempt this government has for the environment, writes Tom Spencer

Thu, 09 Oct, 2025 - 01:12

Tom Spencer

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” This is a quote often misattributed to Albert Einstein.

It's one of those things that we have all mistakenly thought to be real. What Einstein actually said, in translation, was: “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” Perhaps it’s less catchy, but its no less true, and it could not be more apposite in the context of Budget 2026.

Ireland has elected the same two parties into power since it gained independence, and it is no coincidence that we are not making any progress on vital social justice issues like homelessness, healthcare, housing or climate action when our politicians continue to prioritise financiers and big business over ordinary people, as is the case with Jack Chambers and Paschal Donohoe’s latest Budget.

We are on course for runaway climate breakdown, where tipping point after tipping point will fall like dominos. Amongst other things, rising temperatures will cause the permafrost to melt, releasing methane that has been locked beneath it for millennia, which in turn will raise global temperatures further and faster, and so on.

Political apathy

But many have fallen into the trap that climate change will make Ireland a warmer and more pleasant place. Prominent politicians are regularly among their number, including former Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, who said in 2019: “One thing we definitely face as a result of climate change is a warmer winter”.

He extolled the virtues of a warmer climate, including “using less energy” and “it also means fewer deaths as a result of cold weather”.

This was, and is, completely untrue, and demonstrates how, and perhaps why, Irish politicians are failing to protect us from the ravages of the climate emergency. Nowhere was this more stark or obvious than in May 2019, when only six TDs turned up to vote on Ireland becoming the second nation to declare a climate emergency.

The fact that this vote wasn’t a priority for TDs might explain why Ireland is currently on course to cut greenhouse gas emissions by just 23% by 2030 compared to our legally-binding 51% target.

Their apathy towards this issue is making runaway climate breakdown more likely, and narrowing our window to divert towards a safer future.

In the last 10 months alone we have seen two deadly storms rip through this island, including Storm Amy just last week, leaving hundreds of thousands without, some for weeks on end.

These storms are not only more likely because of climate change but are also more powerful, the manifestation of more energy being released into the atmosphere.

Those in power are doing nothing meaningful to cut emissions — the only real measure to guarantee a safer future — or to invest in more robust electricity infrastructure and localised renewable energy to keep the power on when we are hit by winter storms.

Ireland's weather

However, we may not have warmer winters for much longer.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which regulates sea levels and temperatures in Ireland, is looking increasingly likely to collapse in the coming decades, with more recent research suggesting a 95% likelihood before the end of this century (and possibly as soon as the next decade).

This would result in Ireland having winters similar to those experienced in Iceland and Scandinavian countries, with vast increases in snowfall and sub-zero temperatures.

Meanwhile, Ireland’s summers would become much hotter and drier, threatening food security further and increasing the prospect of deadly heatwaves that are already becoming an annual fixture on mainland Europe.

Tom Spencer: 'The message is clear from Budget 2026: unless the Irish electorate prioritise both climate action in their voting and climate suffrage on the streets, social justice issues and the climate emergency are going to worsen year after year.' File picture: Brian Arthur

This will not only be devastating for Irish wildlife and sealife, but for each and every person on this island. It will exacerbate every social justice issue that we have already while making crops more likely to collapse each year.

With nationalism and anti-refugee sentiments already growing amongst Ireland’s far right, we should be conscious that the UN predicts that 1.2 billion people will be displaced by the Climate Emergency by 2050.

We haven’t even begun to have the public conversation about our responsibility to afford safe haven to those people, let alone given a second’s thought to the notion that Ireland may well become one of those uninhabitable lands when runaway climate breakdown kicks in.

The Department of Climate, Environment and Energy was allotted a total of €1.1 billion in Budget 2026. That’s the second lowest amount given to any department, only beating Rural & Community Development.

Budget plans

Meanwhile, the Central Statistics Office shows that the Irish Government gave €4.67 billion in total fossil fuel subsidies in 2024 alone.

Our politicians are spending four times more on subsidising the primary cause of climate change than they are on fixing the issue and reducing emissions. If this isn’t the true definition of insanity, I don’t know what is.

That’s before we factor in the Government’s plans to expand Dublin Airport and re-establish flights between Dublin and Derry, two cities just 243 kilometres apart (that’s not much more than the distance between Dublin and Limerick, which takes just over two hours, costs €25 and emits vastly fewer greenhouse gases).

Compare that with France, where their government enacted a ban on domestic flights that could be made by train in under two-and-a-half hours.

We should also acknowledge the Irish Government’s plans to increase data centres, the biggest consumer of new fossil fuels worldwide, which are projected to be responsible for an 8-21% increase in domestic energy bills in Ireland over the next five years.

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In August, I cautioned that the Irish Government’s proposal to introduce an SUV tax represented the latest in a bare-minimum approach to climate action. That, while vital, laid the cost for emissions at the feet of ordinary people while allowing the real culprits to get off scot-free, again.

Well, it turns out they couldn’t even be bothered to implement the SUV tax.

The message is clear from Budget 2026: unless the Irish electorate prioritise both climate action in their voting and climate suffrage on the streets, social justice issues and the climate emergency are going to worsen year after year.

We must prioritise the rapidly-diminishing Carbon Budget over Budget 2026, which continues to ignore the severity and urgency of the climate crisis and prioritises flourishing businesses over a habitable planet.