Is von der Leyen's U-turn on Gaza too little, too late?

Although the European Commission president went much further than expected in her acknowledgement of the ongoing horrors in Gaza, it is now up to EU member states to approve sanctions on and withdrawal of financial support to Israel

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen went much further than expected in her acknowledgement of the ongoing horrors in Gaza in her State of the Union speech last week. Picture: AP /Pascal Bastien

Ursula von der Leyen’s sympathetic language towards the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza is a surprising shift after two years of relative silence.

Despite several respected organisations — including the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry, and the International Association of Genocide scholars — coming to the conclusion Israel is committing genocide, as well as an overall obscene human cost across Palestinian territories, the president of the European Commission has until recently remained reticent when it comes to calling out Israel’s military assaults on Gaza.

This has also been in spite of widespread protest across Europe, and frequently held “vigils” by EU staff members outside the Berlaymont — the home of the European Commission — in honour of the “death of international law” as a result of inaction by Ms von der Leyen and the EU as a whole.

Ursula von er Leyen hinted rather than explicitly blamed Israel for the deaths of 'people killed while begging for food, 'mothers holding lifeless babies'. Picture: AP/Abdel Kareem Hana

The signatures of more than two thousand commission staff requested Ms von der Leyen sanction Israel to promote “compliance with international humanitarian law”. On multiple occasions, the group requested urgent meetings with the office of Ms von der Leyen to discuss the EU’s untenable inaction amid the man-made crisis in Gaza.

The “requests were consistently denied”, the group says.

Yet on Wednesday, the European Commission will propose sanctions against Israel involving trade disruption to the Israel-EU Association Agreement.

The question is why now, and is it too late to save the credibility of the EU from the accusation of "double-standards" when comes to upholding international law?

“What is happening in Gaza has shaken the conscience of the world,” Ms von der Leyen told MEPs at her EU State of the Union address at the European Parliament last week.

Although she went much further than expected in her acknowledgement of the ongoing horrors in Gaza, she hinted rather than explicitly blamed Israel for the deaths of “people killed while begging for food, “mothers holding lifeless babies”. 

She rightly said her words would be “too much for some and too little for others”, but she is the guardian of the European treaties, and the leading figure representing Europe’s commitment to basic, universal values and international law, including the Geneva Conventions, as well as the EU’s own human rights provisions under the EU-Israel Association Agreement.

While the criticism of her for the EU’s overall refusal to criticise Israel for its excessive military assault after Hamas’s terrorist attack on October 7 is legitimate, it is EU member states that are blocking attempts at EU level to take action.

Ms von der Leyen says she is a “longstanding friend of Israel”. She was naturally visibly moved and shocked when she visited the Kibbutz Kfar Aza in the western Negev after the Hamas terrorist attack, which many people say is the reason she has rarely rebuked Israel for its campaign in Gaza.

The chances member states such as Germany, Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic, Italy and Bulgaria will all lift their fervent refusal to take any action against Israel is almost negligible. Picture: AP/Maya Levin

But the tide is most certainly turning and the commission has issued a series of measures within her authority as president of the commission to target the Jewish state.

They include putting financial support on hold without affecting Israeli civil society or Yad Vashem Holocaust remembrance centre.

Israel is set to receive an average of €6m per year between 2025 and 2027. Future yearly allocations will be suspended.

In addition, the EU will put on hold about €14m for ongoing projects such as twinning programmes.

Crucially though, the commission is also proposing the EU take more fundamental measures such as trade sanctions.

But it is for the EU member states to agree unanimously as to whether they will pass. The chances member states such as Germany, Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic, Italy and Bulgaria will all lift their fervent refusal to take any action against Israel is almost negligible.

The proposal needs a qualified majority, so if bigger states such as Germany or Italy support the measure, it could pass.

However, a previous bid to partially suspend Israel’s participation in the EU’S Horizon Europe programme has been blocked by Germany. It was a disproportionately low measure designed to "allow" Germany to act in a small way so as not to allow total impunity to Israel, say sources in her cabinet.

So is it too little too late, and meaningless anyway as the plan probably will not pass the EU Council of Member States?

Professor Alberto Alemanno of HEC Paris, a leading academic in this area, says Ms von der Leyen “suddenly seems more sensitive to sensitivities of Europeans — young people”.

“Her sudden responsiveness was unexpected”, but there’s no majority to make it happen so it’s a low risk endeavour, he said.

A source on the German commission president's team says “there's a number of things, such as horrendous images of children, and repeated refusal of Israel to change course is really what influenced her”.

“That’s why we went as far as we did with her speech last week” they said.

Others, such as Fianna Fáil MEP Barry Andrews believes Ms von der Leyen feels “under pressure” to save her political skin as a second motion of confidence in her leadership looms large.

By giving into some of her traditional centre-left coalition in the Socialists, Greens and Renew groups in the parliament who are calling on more EU action on Gaza, perhaps she can secure their support.

“My sense is that the situation in Gaza is getting worse and worse and the public is clearly, reacting to it”, Guntram Wolfe, of Bruegel think-tank, told the Irish Examiner.

“The political system reacts to the broader public,” he said.

Nevertheless, the EU Commission is moving much further than expected, and the responsibility is now firmly on member states to act in the interests of humanity, and save what's left of EU credibility on the matter.