Maria Walsh: Polish election result shows we cannot take trust in Europe for granted

The election of right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki as president, with his close ties to Donald Trump and Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, shows we cannot ignore the steady erosion of the centre-ground

Sun, 15 Jun, 2025 - 01:00

Maria Walsh

Earlier this month, Poland elected Karol Nawrocki as its new president as he edged out his opponent by the narrowest of margins in a record-breaking 73% voter turnout.

His defeat of liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski stands in stark contrast to the centrist coalition currently governing in Poland’s parliament — and could signal a pivot backwards in one of the EU’s most strategically important member states.

With his Maga-style politics and growing nationalist platform, Nawrocki resembles a number of other right-wing populist leaders elected in recent years.

His victory arrives at a fragile moment for the EU, a moment when European unity is being tested by war on its borders, institutional reforms in Brussels, and a steady undercurrent of far-right momentum across the bloc.

This is a result that will have consequences far beyond the Polish borders — reverberations of the June 1 election will be felt across the EU and will undoubtedly arrive on Irish shores.

Conversations in Brussels this week have centred around the reasons underpinning Nawrocki’s victory. It appears Poland’s membership of the EU played a pivotal role in the end result. For some Poles, there is a growing feeling the European Union has "diluted" the Polish national identity. This feeling has been matched by a growing wave of nationalism, which is linked to a similar sentiment around migration and open borders.

Polish citizens, who have gained considerably from EU membership, much as we have done in Ireland, have elected a resident who is far from a fan of the European project.

While the impact of Nawrocki’s victory might not be felt immediately in Brussels — he will not directly dictate Poland’s decisions taken across the EU institutions — the presidential role is much more than a ceremonial footnote.

As president, he holds veto power over legislation and has already forced prime minister Donald Tusk — who leads a pro-European government — into calling a parliamentary vote of confidence. Given his power over the prime minister, a legislative stalemate surrounding Tusk’s pro-European reforms is highly likely.

Fine Gael MEP Maria Walsh: 'We must ensure Irish citizens continue to see and understand the value of the European project — because trust in Europe cannot be assumed, it must be earned.'

Since Brexit, the EU’s centre of gravity has shifted eastward. Poland has been at the heart of this transition, with its influence in the EU continuing to increase thanks to its economic growth, geographic position and strong defence capabilities.

Since joining the EU in 2004, Poland has become the fastest growing economy in Europe.

Alongside its fiscal success, Poland has emerged as a military frontrunner in the EU. The size of its army outweighs that of the UK, France, and Germany, with annual investment in defence reaching almost 5%.

Given its proximity to Kaliningrad and Russia, and past history of occupation, it is no surprise Poland has prioritised its security and defence, and in recent months it has played a central role in the Coalition of the Willing.

Nawrocki’s victory puts into question how Poland will now be able to collaborate with the EU on issues of security, and crucially on the Russia-Ukraine war.

As the commander in chief, Nawrocki can shape foreign and security policy, and his current position on Ukraine is nuanced. On the one hand, he does not support cutting off weapons to Ukraine and has not been as pro-Russia as some other Maga-style politicians.

However, Nawrocki has demonised Ukrainian refugees in his country, claimed Zelenskyy “treats Poland badly”, and opposes Ukrainian integration into European-oriented bodies, such as the EU and Nato. Without a strong ally in Poland, the EU is significantly weaker in pushing ahead with its defence agenda.

Perhaps most notable about Nawrocki’s victory is what it tells us about the European political climate. With recent gains by right-wing parties in the European parliamentary elections and across France, Germany, and Italy, the Polish result feels less like an anomaly and more like a bellwether.

The election of Romania’s Nicușor Dan last month offers a glimmer of hope, but given Nawrocki’s close ties to Donald Trump and Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, we cannot ignore the steady erosion of the centre-ground.

In Ireland, we have been fortunate the centre has held in recent elections — underpinned by strong support for European cooperation, inclusion and democratic values. But Poland has shown us how quickly the tide can change.

In less than two years, a shift in public sentiment has deepened divisions on the EU’s eastern flank and raised urgent questions about whether our institutions are still connecting with the citizens they represent.

The Polish election has practical implications for Ireland — we must push harder for EU cooperation and commit to a more serious role in European defence. Just as importantly, we must ensure Irish citizens continue to see and understand the value of the European project — because trust in Europe cannot be assumed, it must be earned.