Ireland is now a lonely neutral island surrounded by Nato
US president Donald Trump speaks during a press conference after a summit of heads of state and government at Nato headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, in 2018; during the four years of his first term in office, Trump showed contempt for the alliance. Picture: AP
There is a bland assumption by the Irish public that if there is a serious threat to our national security and defence, Nato will step in and defend Ireland.
Moreover, this assumption is the unspoken reason why our political leaders have neglected funding up our Defence Forces over the past four decades.
But what if Nato itself fails to defend its own member countries against attack, and ultimately disintegrates?
There has long been a doubt that if Russia launches an attack on the Baltic states, a US led by president Trump would use nuclear weapons to save those states from being overrun and occupied.
As far back as March, celebrity security and defence analyst, Professor Michael Clarke, predicted the fragmentation of Nato in the event of Donald Trump being re-elected US president.
In a interview, he added that the process will start the day after the election and Nato will not find a consensus on its future relations with Russia.
He spoke of Nato dismantling itself into a northern Nato, that will be prepared to be tough with Russia, and a southern Nato which would be soft with Russia.
This process of fragmentation is even more likely if Russia wins the war in Ukraine.
Even though Ukraine is not a member of Nato, most of Nato’s member countries are individually committed to helping Ukraine.
Nevertheless, western countries’ public interest in Ukraine is no longer the same as it was a year ago.
In a post-war situation where Russia wins, the collective resolve of the Nato alliance will be shaken to its core.
Clarke’s view that Trump’s election will be the catalyst for further undermining the cohesion of Nato, should be taken seriously.
We, in Ireland, because of our geographic location, should be very concerned what happens to Nato, now that Trump will be returning to the White House.
Viewed from space we may be surprised to see that Ireland is located, not on the periphery of Nato, but closer to its centre.
This particular perspective is increasingly relevant to Ireland’s future security and defence.
Space is now the fourth of five domains of war which are, land, maritime, air, space, and cyberspace.
Ireland’s national territory is also the Defence Forces’ national area of operations, which the Defence Forces is required to defend.
With a maritime area seven times greater than its landmass, Ireland’s territorial area is one of the largest in Western Europe, totalling 560,000sq km, larger than Germany’s (386,000sq km).
Our area of operational interest (author’s definition) is that area beyond our national area of operations, from which a potential threat to our national security and defence, could emerge, having regard to threats assessments covering the five domains of war.
The area of Ireland’s operational interest will vary, depending, inter alia, on the geopolitical situation at any given time.
We are, and rightly so, politically committed to supporting Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression.
But we are also militarily involved in the war by deciding to supply Ukraine’s Armed Forces with extensive, non-lethal, logistical and training support, vitally required for success on the battlefield.
But even before the war, Russia’s air and naval operations off our west coast had shown that Ireland is, geographically at least, in Russia’s area of operational interest.
Undersea cables in Irish waters carry most of the Internet traffic between North America and Europe. One snip and no more Internet.
When Finland and Sweden defected to Nato it effectively ended the informal grouping of the neutral/ non-aligned EU member states which cooperated within the EU.
Ireland has long been an island, but now it’s a lonely neutral island surrounded by Nato.
During the four years of his presidency, Trump showed contempt for the alliance. He continued his election campaign rhetoric against Nato into his presidency.
He tasked his staff to study options for the possible US withdrawal from Nato.
He was accused of cosying up to Russian president Putin. European Nato countries became deeply concerned, especially the Baltic states.
The Maga movement, which he promotes, is both isolationist and grandiose.
It presents the idea that the US was once great, and under his leadership, could be great again.
Putin thinks the same way about Russia. In his essay ‘On the Historical Unity of Russia and Ukraine’ (July 2021), Putin appealed to the Russian people to remember Russia’s past.
He is currently on a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, to recreate a new Russian Empire, or we could say, to ‘make Russia great again’.
It seems that Trump may share, to a certain extent, Putin’s view of the World, including the restoration of the long rejected concept of ‘spheres of influence’.
Trump claims he will end the war in Ukraine, perhaps by accepting that all, or part, of Ukraine, is Russian historically and should return to the Russian sphere of influence.
Nato has provided military reinforcements to Nato’s Eastern area. Most notably to Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia.
These Nato contingents, led by the US, UK, Canada, and Germany, are not, in themselves, substantial enough to secure the defence of these countries.
They do, however, ensure the internationalisation of any conflict that may arise with Russia.
This internationalisation boosts the deterrent factor in each of these countries’ national defence strategies.
It is not just Trump’s threat to reduce corporation tax we have to worry about.
His administration will have no sympathy for a nation that takes corporation tax from US multinationals, while neglecting to fund up its own national security and defence, to protect the very same multinationals working in-country.
In Ireland’s case the domain of war of most concern to the multinationals is cyberspace, with energy security also a priority.
The unpredictable Trump won’t face the electorate again. He is free to set his own agenda. Will his past stated views come back to reshape our World?
As Nigel Farage famously said, of ‘The Donald’: “You don’t have to take him literally, but you do have to take him seriously.”
- Dorcha Lee is a retired Army Colonel and defence analyst
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