Elaine Loughlin: Could Simon Harris call an election next week?

There is growing speculation that the Taoiseach could go to the country as early as October 'before the clocks go back'

While the election is expected by most to happen some time between November and next February, Simon Harris may go earlier. Picture: Eamonn Farrell/RollingNews 

Speculation is mounting within Fine Gael that the Taoiseach will call an election as early as next week which could see the public go to the polls in October. 

Some within the party have now suggested that Simon Harris could cut and run next Wednesday after announcing a pre-election budget on Tuesday.

Rumours of all sorts of dates from November 15 to Valentine’s Day, February 14, have been floating around and occupying much of the discussion since the Dáil returned, but the chatter has now gone into overdrive around the possibility of Harris calling it even earlier.

While next Wednesday has been touted for the announcement, another senior party source suggested that next Friday week may be the day Harris decides to go to the Áras, giving the coalition a little extra breathing space between the budget announcement and the start of an election campaign.

But either scenario would mean he would go to the country on the basis that if re-elected his party would enact the budget, which is expected to include energy credits, a €15 increase for pensioners, as well as cost-of-living supports and other changes to taxation which would see €1,000 back in people’s pockets.

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The Finance Bill, which is required before budget measures can take effect, could be set aside but quickly picked up and passed under Mr Harris in the next government.

Friday, October 25, “before the clocks go back”, is the most likely date being circulated around Leinster House. One Fine Gael member also suggested Thursday, November 7 as an alternative day to go to the polls.

But, as one politician put it: 

The place is awash with rumours and everyone is an expert and no one really knows. 

Another source within the party suggested that talk of an election being called next week is nonsense, pointing to the fact that some candidates have yet to get posters printed.

While there may be a few ill-prepared stragglers, it is clear that both the opposition and government TDs have been getting themselves ready for a campaign for some time now, with many taking trips to photo studios over the summer.

Then taoiseach John Bruton outside Leinster House in January 1982 with his budget statement. The introduction of Vat on children's shoes caused Socialist TD Jim Kemmy to withdraw his support and the government fell. Picture: Eamonn farrell/RollingNews

Budget time can be fraught, especially in a coalition where squabbles over the amount of funding allocated to departments and specific measures can spiral into tense exchanges.

Politicians will remember 1982 when the then government fell over the controversial budget move to introduce a tax on children’s shoes.

So choosing to pull a government without actually enacting the budget would be a dramatic and daring move. 

But it would certainly inject the element of surprise and could leave the opposition floundering at the beginning of sprint campaign.