Rural Ireland Thinks poll: Health, housing, and the cost of living remain key voter concerns

When people were asked about the factors most likely to influence their vote, the leading concerns were the cost of living and inflation, followed by the state of healthcare, the economy, and housing

On the issue of climate, 43% feel the Government is doing enough to tackle climate change and 38% disagree, but only a quarter of people in rural Ireland feel that farmers contribute negatively to climate change. Picture: David Creedon

Given the controversy it has caused, the depth of the feeling, the measures taken, one would assume that immigration would be one of the pressing issues for voters.

But the Irish Examiner/Ireland Thinks poll of rural Ireland suggests that while it is important, there are more pressing issues in the minds of rural voters.

Asked about the issues that would sway them in a general election in the next few months, only 42% of people say immigration is a "very influential" factor in their voting, while 30% say it is somewhat influential, while 16% of people say it is of minimal importance and 11% say it is not important at all.

So, despite the level of attention the issue has garnered, one in four voters says that it does not matter to them. Furthermore, when asked to rank the issue in terms of importance, just 9% of people say it is the singular most important issue for them. 

Ahead? The holy trinity of Irish politics — health, housing, and the cost of living.

When people were asked about the factors most likely to influence their vote in the next General Election, the leading concerns were the cost of living and inflation, followed closely by the state of healthcare, the economy, and housing, which ranked slightly higher than crime. Taxes were mentioned as being nearly as important as crime.

A total of 72% indicated that immigration plays a role in shaping their vote, making it the sixth most important issue out of seven, with climate change coming in last at 59%.

When respondents were asked to rank issues by how influential they would be, with a need to choose their top three, cost of living and inflation consistently emerged as the most important concerns. Healthcare ranked second, just ahead of housing. 

The economy ranked fourth, and immigration was fifth, with only about a quarter of respondents placing immigration among their top three, making it significantly less influential than housing (by 23%) and cost of living (by 50%).

Throughout much of the most violent rhetoric around immigration, government politicians often maintained that it was not an issue dominating the contacts to their offices.

Indeed, Sinn Féin candidates in the local elections in June were adamant that the party was not being punished for its stances on immigration and this is borne out in this poll. Just 8% of those who intend to vote for Mary Lou McDonald's party in rural Ireland see immigration as the biggest issue.

To what extent will the following issues influence how you vote in the coming election?

Likewise the poll will make for interesting reading for Micheál Martin, with just 4% of rural Fianna Fáil voters saying that immigration was a major issue, significantly lower than the other parties, with 17% of those voting independent saying it was the most pressing of their concerns.

But for policymakers, the poll does present a problem on the issue of immigration; just under half say they would object to an International Protection Centre opening near them, although a third disagree. This suggests that while many people are not particularly exercised by the abstract idea of immigration, they balk at it becoming a local issue.

Indeed, a significant majority believe that rural towns and villages have shouldered an unfair portion of asylum applications, with 66% agreeing and 14% disagreeing. Additionally, there is somewhat more support for the Gardaí’s handling of anti-migrant protests, with 41% of people feeling they have managed the situation effectively, while 33% disagree.

This will be a challenge for politicians as numbers of international protection applicants coming to Ireland increase — how to house those coming here and keep the public onside. Though the common refrain of a lack of access to services in rural Ireland is not seen across the board in the polling. In relation to GP services, 92% have access to a GP, although more than half say that they have had to wait two or more days for an appointment within the past 12 months.

Representing rural Ireland

But the big issue facing political parties in rural Ireland comes later in the poll, where voters were asked to agree or disagree with the statement: independent TDs better represent the issues facing rural Ireland.

Of those responses, 32% strongly agreed and 29% somewhat agreed while only 8% strongly disagreed and 9% somewhat disagreed. 

However, in better news for established parties, just 17% say they strongly agree that those TDs were more effective when it came to the work of a politician. Older adults were more likely to perceive that Independents are more effective than those in mainstream parties, with a majority across all demographics saying that those independents from rural areas were more tuned in to rural issues.

On the issue of climate, 43% feel the Government is doing enough to tackle climate change and 38% disagree, but only a quarter of people in rural Ireland feel that farmers contribute negatively to climate change. While two-thirds are worried about the impacts of climate change, just 20% would be willing to pay more in levies or taxes to tackle it.

Ultimately, about one person in every six say they don’t believe in climate change although the vast majority (73%) do so, with 19% of those aged 25-49 not believing in climate change.

Just a fifth of people living in rural areas say they would consider going electric the next time while almost 2 in 3 would not.

On the issue of safety, five out of six people (84%), say that they feel safe living in rural Ireland, though just 30% feel there is either a visible garda presence in their area or on local roads.