Dorcha Lee: An international peacekeeping force should replace the IDF in Gaza

There were 30,000 on October 7, but the numbers that remain are in dispute. Ultimately, they should be sent into exile and Israeli forces withdrawn from Gaza

Israeli soldiers near the Israeli-Gaza border last week. The IDF have been reporting a steady degradation of Hamas’s military capability ever since October 7. Photo: AP/Leo Correa

As negotiations continue on the latest US-sponsored ceasefire proposal in Gaza, the future of the remaining Hamas combatants will be an important consideration. 

The big question is how many Hamas fighters are still alive and if they are sufficient in number to pose a significant threat to the State of Israel. 

The US maintains that Hamas no longer has the capability of launching an operation similar to its murderous attack on October 7. However, given the Israeli Government’s present position, it is highly unlikely that this alone would be acceptable as the barometer to measure the future Hamas threat.

The IDF have been reporting a steady degradation of Hamas’s military capability ever since October 7. By late February it was reporting that this was down to 50%, and that 10,000 Hamas fighters had been killed. These figures are at variance with research conducted by BBC Verify. On February 29, BBC Verify reviewed all 280 videos posted to the IDF YouTube Channel between October 7 and February 24 and found very little visual evidence of Hamas fighters being killed. 

In fact, only one video, on December 14, shows what purports to be dead bodies of fighters. BBC Verify also noted that the IDF official Telegram Channel had 160 posts where it was claimed terrorists had been killed. However, the total number of claimed deaths only came to 714.

A month ago, the IDF announced that Hamas’s military capability had been degraded by 90%. It claimed that the Northern and Central Gaza areas had been neutralised and that only four Hamas battalions (approximately 3,000 combatants) were remaining in the south.

At about the same time, two US-based online newspapers, the Jewish Insider and the Palestinian Chronicle, suggested that the bulk of Hamas fighters had survived the Israeli attacks, one specifying that over 15,000 were alive and well.

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However, since then, Hamas has re-emerged in both the Northern and Central areas. The IDF has had to conduct a week-long ground operation in the Northern area of Jabalia. Following a series of air strikes, the IDF launched a complex co-ordinated air and ground operation in the Central Gazan town of Nuseirat, in which it succeeded in rescuing four Israel hostages. 

The Hamas controlled GMH (Gaza Ministry of Health) has said that 274 Palestinians died and 698 were wounded in the IDF operation. Clearly neither Northern nor Central Gaza have been ‘neutralised’.

The IDF has reported that 300 Hamas fighters have been killed in Rafah during the IDF’s limited operations conducted the week before last, reducing still further the “four battalions”.

One way to estimate how many Hamas fighters have survived is to try to figure out how many have died. It is estimated now that the starting figure was about 25,000 to 30,000 combatants, out of an adult male population of approximately 730,000.

The total figure of Palestinian deaths in Gaza is 37,202 (GMH June 12). It is a body count that includes a large number of unidentified bodies. The GMH figure is the main source used by UN’s OCHA (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) and by international NGOs, who have personnel in Gaza. 

The aftermath of an Israeli bombing in Nuseirat refugee camp in Gaza on June 8. Photo: AP/Jehad Alshrafi

The GMH figures are passed on to the Hamas-controlled Government Media Office (GMO) for informing the international media. Neither the GMH nor the GMO have revealed if these civilian casualties include Hamas combatants.

Up to the April 1, the GMH has been reporting that 70% of the dead (and wounded) were women and children. However, it was realised that they had insufficient data on 10,000 of the dead. 

The GMH revised its figures to 40% male adults, 20% women, 32% children and 8% elderly. These figures have been accepted by OCHA. 

Contrary to Israeli reports, the GMH has not revised downwards the total number of dead. The GMO is still reporting the incorrect 70% figure for women and children, for propaganda purposes. Also, for propaganda purposes the IDF is reporting that the ratio of civilians to Hamas combatants being killed is now 1:1. 

This is beyond being remotely credible. It is more likely to be 10:1, if we take estimates from international agencies and NGOs, that less than 10% of the GMH reported dead are combatants.

The suggestion that the male deaths are mostly combatants is highly unlikely, as Hamas combatants stay indoors as much as possible to avoid being picked out by air and satellite surveillance. 

When an attack starts, they mostly retreat to the safely of the tunnels. This still does not explain why the proportion of adult male deaths reported is so high. The explanation may be simple. The Hamas-controlled administration built no air raid shelters for the civilian population. 

When an attack happens, the local Palestinian Civil Defence Service’s advice is for everyone to go indoors, with priority to women and children. The men who are dying in Gaza are, for the most part, just fathers, husbands and sons trying to look after their families.

The destruction after an Israeli strike where displaced people were staying in Rafah last month. Palestinian health workers said Israeli airstrikes killed at least 35 people in the area. Israel's army confirmed Sunday's strike and said it hit a Hamas installation and killed two senior Hamas militants. Photo: AP/Jehad Alshrafi

Based on this assessment, this would indicate that about 4,000 Hamas combatants have been killed, and perhaps double that number wounded. This supports the theory that the bulk of Hamas combatants have survived. 

It also explains why PM Netanyahu is very reluctant to halt offensive operations. Over the past two days the IDF has started introducing tactical pauses to allow humanitarian operations resume in Gaza, against the express direction of PM Netanyahu. This begs the question, who is really in charge in Israel?

I believe that the surviving Hamas combatants should be allowed to go into permanent exile under a flag of truce. Bringing war criminals to justice should be left to the International Criminal Court, which has jurisdiction in the Palestinian territories since February 2021.

The IDF should be withdrawn from Gaza and replaced by an international peacekeeping force.

• Dorcha Lee is a retired Army Colonel and defence analyst.