Elaine Loughlin: No Sinn Féin landslide, no lurch to far-right, no drubbing for Government

The early indications from the 2024 elections have shown one thing — the centre has held, writes Elaine Loughlin

Ballot papers at Nemo Rangers Cork on Saturday as the local and European papers are separated. Picture: Larry Cummins

The centre has held.

Initial indications are that there will be no Sinn Féin landslide, no significant lurch to the far right or no drubbing for the Government parties in either the local or European elections.

In the lead-up to Friday's elections, candidates and canvassers of all parties and none had been reporting that the mood on the doors was positive. People seemed receptive, but in many cases were not interested in interacting beyond taking a leaflet.

Unlike the local elections of 2019 during which the Green Party sailed in on a wave of support, or the 2020 general election which saw Sinn Féin surge, there was no apparent groundswell for any particular party or candidate in the days leading up to the vote.

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This was interpreted by some as apathy among the public, others suggested it might be a growing undercurrent of support for the far right.

But what this lack of real engagement appears to have been is actually a satisfaction with the political status quo.

It will be some time before the final results are in but initial tallies show that Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green candidates are largely holding their own.

Another trend that has emerged — and which was very apparent as the ballots began to tumble out of boxes in Dublin's RDS — is the solid transfer rate between the coalition candidates.

Many of those giving a number one vote to Fianna Fáil's Barry Andrews, who appears to have had a very good day out, have then given their number two to Fine Gael candidate Regina Doherty and vice versa. 

Count staff count ballot papers in the RDS. Picture: Sam Boal/Collins Photos

One Fine Gael member later said on the doors some people had been indicating that they would be deploying their own voting pact, going down the list of Government candidates.

In Ireland South Fianna Fáil's Billy Kelleher is performing well as is Fine Gael's Sean Kelly.

While a vocal far-right cohort had actively agitated online, tallies (albeit patchy ones) appear to show that by and large the public is content with the current pollical landscape.

Perhaps benefiting from a new leader boost, Simon Harris's party looks set to do well at local level and may even leapfrog Fianna Fáil to claim the most seats in councils across the city.

In a message sent to an internal Fine Gael group, the Taoiseach said he was "encouraged" to see so many party candidates "doing so well in urban Ireland, rural Ireland — right across the country."

While Sinn Féin will gain seats in councils across the country, in reality those in Mary Lou McDonald's party will be disappointed by this election.

In the last general election Sinn Féin made a significant error in not running enough candidates to meet voter demand, this time around the opposition party appears to have put forward too many candidates, which has diluted the vote.

But there are still many long hours, days and maybe even weeks before all votes are counted and seats filled.