All-out war or de-escalation: What will Israel and Netanyahu do next?

After Iran’s attack, the Israeli leader faces a crucial dilemma about how to respond

Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip, in Ashkelon, Israel, Friday, Dec. 1, 2023. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov)

When Saddam Hussein embarked on his failed venture to capture Kuwait in 1991, the Iraqi dictator lobbed dozens of Scud missiles at Tel Aviv in the hope of provoking an Israeli retaliation that would split the US-Arab coalition moving against him. Washington convinced Israel’s then prime minister, Yitzhak Shamir, not to step into the fray, and all-out regional war was averted.

This weekend Iran became the first sovereign state in 33 years to directly attack Israel, launching hundreds of missiles and drones overnight. Benjamin Netanyahu could be said to be facing a similar dilemma to Shamir – but it is his own decisions and miscalculations since October 7 that have led Israel to this precarious juncture.