Paul Hosford: Does accelerating child benefit change hint at early election?

Families will be enticed by the additional payment that can be sold on the doors during canvassing, writes Paul Hosford

With Social Protection Minister Heather Humphreys announcing that her department is set to begin the child benefit payments ahead of schedule, some Government TDs speculate that an election will be called before this time next year. Picture: PA

In the aftermath of last year’s budget, Government members were keen to play down the idea that it was an “election budget”.

Ministers and party leaders lined up to deny that it was a proposal for a second term, but they did stress that the “squeezed middle” — that long-suffering and ill-defined constituency — was being assisted.

Part of that assistance came from a swathe of social protection measures, among which was a highly popular move to extend child benefit payments to young people in full-time education up until their 19th birthday from September.

Those with kids still in school this year would have preferred the money come into play sooner, but it was decided that the payment would coincide with the beginning of the new school year.

However, Social Protection Minister Heather Humphreys told Cabinet on Tuesday that her department is in a position to implement the measure — which will benefit the families of 60,000 teenagers — earlier than planned and it will begin in May, offering an additional €560 per child than previously considered.

Good news for those families.

While one theory is simply that the department has the money and the issue often arises at this time of year for people who find themselves cut off from the payment just when exam fees need to be paid, the timing of the move was considered curious by some around Leinster House.

Bringing the payment forward had, one Government TD surmised, “the air of an early election about it”.

However, it’s possible that everyone inside Leinster House — this writer included — is simply gripped by a shared mania of speculation about when the next general election might come, even if this theory does stand up to a basic sense check.

The logic is that 60,000 families, with newly minted voters, will be enticed by the additional €120 per month and all that goes with it.

Being a broad payment which is not means tested, it is an easy one to sell on the doors when the time comes.

Interest piqued

Within the confines of Leinster House, a number of TDs said that it had piqued their interest.

“It’s probably not enough to campaign on alone, but it wouldn’t hurt you on the doors,” one Government backbencher said, while an opposition TD said that it was “a hard measure to argue with” — given its wide appeal.

Within Government, senior members now expect that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will call the next election before February 2025, the Taoiseach having been burned by the 2020 and 2016 vintages when candidates were tasked with selling the Fine Gael message in bad weather and dark nights.

“Nobody likes canvassing in winter,” a long-time TD said, adding: “If you can avoid it, you would.”

The problem that the Government has — if Mr Varadkar was minded to give his candidates the summer light to navigate housing estates by — is that, between the March 8 referendums and June’s local and European elections, there is not really a landing spot for a general election in the first half of this year.

Speaking in early January, Mr Varadkar said that he “wasn’t planning” on a June “super election”.

Politicians of all stripes are glad to hear that, many fearing the effect that running three polls at once would have.

Theories

Mr Varadkar could call the general election immediately after the locals and Europeans, have the election in July, and allow the summer weeks for Government formation. That would allow the Dáil to return in early September and a budget to be discussed by the new Government, whatever its makeup, for October. 

Another theory is that the move means that the decks are somewhat cleared for an election to be called in September, for voting in September or October. By that stage, the social protection measures will have kicked in and the additional 25% cut in childcare fees will have been given to parents through the National Childcare Scheme.

At that point, the Taoiseach may look at the six months ahead of him — when the speculation will hit overdrive — and decide it is best to go early.

That decision lies with the Taoiseach alone, though he has said that he will consult his coalition partners, but there could be a more immediate concern.

The European elections could see a small number of TDs — Fianna Fáil’s Barry Cowen and Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion have announced their candidacies — elected to seats in Brussels, which would necessitate by-elections in constituencies where opposition parties would fancy their chances.

In 2019, the Government lost four by-elections in November before a February election. Many in the coalition parties are keen to avoid a similar situation, despite confidence that Mr Cowen’s seat could be held. Around Leinster House, there is a sense now that an election will come before this time next year. However, with very few selection conventions having taken place, it is not seen as imminent.

TDs will be attuned to any future moves that appear to prepare the ground for an early election, moves like bringing forward social protection payments.