Tom Clonan: War in Gaza will escalate with the civilian death toll rising exponentially

An Israeli military ground offensive to locate and destroy Hamas in Gaza city — where around 200,000 Palestinians are now trapped — could take months, writes Tom Clonan

Tue, 31 Oct, 2023 - 18:00

Tom Clonan

Binyamin Netanyahu has clearly signalled the ground phase of the current war in Gaza. Ruling out international demands for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, the Israeli prime minister has told the world, and the Israeli public: “This is time for war.”

This statement comes in a particular context. After weeks of air strikes and artillery attacks throughout Gaza, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) personnel have now begun the ground invasion. They are now moving on three axes of advance on Gaza city in the north of the densely populated Palestinian territory.

Israeli tanks, accompanied by infantry and supported by helicopter gunships and fighter jets, are now moving into the suburbs of Gaza city, west from the sea along with cross-border incursions from the north and south-east. Israel’s stated war aims are, to quote Mr Netanyahu, to “crush and destroy Hamas”.

Precisely how Israel will do this was revealed by Mark Regev, senior military advisor to Mr Netanyahu, in an interview with CNN where he said: “We will destroy Hamas the way Isis was destroyed in Syria and Iraq.”

In this regard, Mr Regev was referring to the complete annihilation of Islamic State (IS) fighters in Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq. The conduct of these military operations are an explicit indication of what is planned for Hamas in Gaza city. The battle for Raqqa, at the heart of the IS ‘caliphate’, took 11 months, from November 2016 to October 2017, to root out, destroy, and eliminate IS fighters in that city. The battle for Mosul raged for nine months, from October 2016 to July 2017, in order to kill and disperse 9,000 IS fighters.

There are around 40,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza city. Unlike IS in Raqqa and Mosul, Hamas have had years to build a labyrinth of underground tunnels and subterranean strong points, command and control centres, and hospitals deep within Gaza city.

Hamas has been preparing for years for this Israeli ground invasion. Previous Israeli ground incursions into Gaza have been relatively brief — two weeks in January 2009 at the end of the notorious IDF Operation Cast Lead, and a similar two-week operation in July and August 2014.

In these ground incursions, thousands of Palestinians, mostly innocent men, women, and children, were slaughtered. In relation to the 2009 Israeli operation, Amnesty international observed that “in the three weeks following the start of the Israeli military offensive… Israeli forces killed more than 1,300 Palestinians in Gaza, including more than 300 children”.

The magnitude of civilian casualties in Gaza during the current IDF assault already dwarfs these numbers in sheer scale and severity. Already, more than 8,500 Palestinians have been killed, including around 3,500 children — 40% of the casualties thus far.

Based on the recent experience of modern urban combat in Mosul and Raqqa, the Israeli military will require a prolonged ground campaign to identify, locate, and destroy Hamas in Gaza city. Such an operation could take months, in contrast with Israel’s previous, relatively brief incursions.

Civilian casualties

In the coming days and weeks, civilian casualties will multiply exponentially. According to the IDF, around 800,000 Palestinians have fled Gaza city and its environs. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency confirms that around 640,000 civilians are sheltering at UN schools, hospitals, and other facilities in Gaza and south of the city along the route towards Khan Younis and the Rafah crossing with Egypt.

These internally displaced persons are extremely vulnerable and lack basic supplies of water, food, and shelter. The around 200,000 Palestinians now trapped in Gaza city are in extremis — many of them are the most vulnerable of citizens, the wounded, the sick, disabled persons, the elderly, and many men, women, and children paralysed by fear and unable to evacuate.

The IDF will now manoeuver towards the centre of Gaza city. They will advance with Merkava main battle tanks, supported by heavily armed infantry. The main armament on these tanks is a 120mm cannon which fires high explosive armour-piercing, anti-personnel, and incendiary rounds. Designed for the open battlefield, these armaments will tear through the walls of houses, penetrating brick, steel, concrete, and timber. There is no shelter or cover from such weapons. The standard infantry weapons carried by Israeli troops, with high velocity 5.56mm and 7.62mm bullets, also pass through the walls and interior partitions of family homes and buildings.

In addition to these weapon systems, the missiles and 12.7mm weapon systems on attack helicopters will fire armour-piercing and armour-piercing incendiary rounds, at a rate of 550 rounds per minute, into densely populated urban environments.

This leads to catastrophic injuries among innocent men, women, and children. High explosives cause massive soft tissue injuries, burning, limb separation, decapitation, and shrapnel injuries.

The shock wave associated with such weapons, in confined environments, causes the pulping of internal organs and shattering of bones and joints. This is the environment in which hundreds of thousands of innocent Palestinians will now find themselves.

The Geneva Conventions explicitly prohibit the use of such weapon systems among the civilian population. Protocol 1, article 51, sections 4 and 5a prohibit “a method of attack that cannot be directed at or limited to specific military objectives” or “where there is a concentration of civilians or civilian objects”.

War crimes

If and when Israel’s military ramps up its military offensive — now, illegally calling for the abandonment of all 13 hospitals in the city — it will commit war crimes against Palestinians in terms of indiscriminate attacks, wanton destruction, and wilful killing, including the killing of an average of 300 children on a daily basis.

Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas. It does not have the right to commit war crimes.

The Hamas attack on Israel of October 7 was a genocidal attack and represents a series of egregious war crimes. The continued firing of rockets and missiles by Hamas on Israel constitutes ongoing war crimes against the Israeli people. Hamas’ use of Palestinians as de-facto human shields, by locating their forces among civilian infrastructure and the civilian population, is also a war crime and, along with the holding of Israeli hostages, contravenes article 51 (7) of the Geneva Conventions.

Under the obligations of article 15 of the fourth Geneva Convention, Israel must provide a safe evacuation corridor and safe “neutralised zones” for Palestinian civilians.

To avert an almost unprecedented human catastrophe, there must be an immediate ceasefire and intervention by the international community to de-escalate this war.

Compounding this crisis is the risk of regional escalation. As the IDF fights its way into Gaza city, with the accompanying apocalyptic horror of civilian casualties uploaded across the global digital realm, Iran will instruct Hezbollah in Lebanon to attack Israel.

After the disastrous invasion and occupation of Iraq, Iran now enjoys an arc of influence, and a land corridor, from Tehran to Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut. Hezbollah has a massive stockpile of missiles and an almost limitless supply line of munitions and reinforcements from Iran, should they decide to open a second front in this war.

What Israelis and Palestinians need at this moment is ethical, visionary leadership. Tragically, neither Mr Netanyahu nor Hamas possesses these characteristics.

Without such leadership internationally, this war will have global implications — continued instability, human suffering, and the re-invigoration of fundamentalist extremism and acts of terrorism worldwide.