Ciara Phelan: Boundaries of Irish political landscape set to shift
Simon Harris' speech at the Collins/Griffith commemoration was seen by some as a play for the Fine Gael leadership. Picture: Stephen Collins/Collins Photos
As summer recesses go, this one has been something of a walk in the park for the Government.
The Dáil wound up in mid-July with those who stroll the corridors of power wondering what controversy would interrupt their summer holidays this year.
Two years ago, it was the shock appointment of former cabinet minister Katherine Zappone to a UN special envoy role that rocked the Coalition. The drama over a garden party at the Merrion Hotel exacerbated the fiasco.
Last year, junior Fianna Fáil minister Robert Troy, who we learned had 11 properties, resigned after he failed to declare all details of his properties to the Dáil register of members’ interests.
While the Coalition has managed to breeze through August practically unscathed, the storm clouds are not too far away.
The Electoral Commission will this Wednesday reveal new constituency boundaries which will amount to a new political landscape for voters. And for many TDs and senators, it may determine their political future.
Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe was putting it mildly when he said there is “red-hot interest” in the review.
The pending changes have resulted in sleepless nights for politicians as they desperately ring one another and journalists to see if any of the details have been leaked.
It is impossible to tell how the boundary changes will impact those elected until people hit the ballot boxes, with senior Government figures speculating that this could be next November.
What is clear though, is that both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil politicians have begun thinking, discussing, and some of them plotting what the current Coalition could look like if it was returned for another term.
Despite concern in the short term about the effect the boundary redraw will have, talk is rife about the long-term plans for both parties and their leaders, particularly Fine Gael.
Many in the parliamentary party do not expect Leo Varadkar to lead them into the next general election.
Although there is no sense of a heave, it is being discussed widely that following the local and European elections next year, something will need to change if Fine Gael has a poor result, something many are expecting.
Although Varadkar will deny it, senior Fine Gael TDs, including some ministers, believe that his heart is no longer in the job.
He may privately be passionate about his work but on the outside, it’s not showing.
It is understood his relationships with some of his own Cabinet colleagues have also shifted in recent months.
Publicly they will support him but behind closed doors, there has been a drift.
Speaking to numerous TDs and senators over the past two weeks, they feel change is afoot. Plenty feel Varadkar won’t be ousted but instead he’ll make the decision to go, once he figures out what he’d like to do next.
They believe it will be before the next general election.
Some say he’s heading for Europe; others are not so sure.
It’s no secret that the Fine Gael leader has had a bruising two years politically and personally.
Varadkar has lost and is losing a number of allies, including John Paul Phelan, Brendan Griffin, and Michael D’Arcy, with his advisers filling those gaps as sounding boards, instead of members within the parliamentary party.
It is expected that the boundary redraw will also see a number of TDs deciding not to run again.
Change at the top is needed, with a fresh approach presented to the electorate when the time comes, a significant number of backbench TDs agree.
Not one Fine Gael politician, when contacted, hesitated when asked who they believed should replace Varadkar.
One Sunday newspaper described Simon Harris as the “minister for everything”, having grabbed headlines in recent weeks as he hit out at banks for failing to reward savers with higher deposit rates, also strongly condemning crime in Dublin, suggesting a relaxation in regard to gardaí having tattoos, in order to assist with recruitment issues — among many other hot topics.
TDs remarked how Harris has managed to further increase his communication to another level with colleagues.
His speech at the recent Michael Collins/Arthur Griffith commemoration, in which he pledged a “new social contract”, also attracted attention.
He denied that his speech was a play for the leadership of Fine Gael but that is not how others have viewed it.
He has also been asked to speak at a Fine Gael event in West Cork next month, despite it being the home county of Simon Coveney, the party’s deputy leader.
“There is a clear succession plan forming,” one Fine Gael politician said.
For Fianna Fáil, it’s not as clear cut. It is anticipated that Micheál Martin will take up a European commissioner role next year. Even though he has ruled himself out when asked if he has his eyes set on the top job, it’s hard for people to believe that.
His new ‘In Conversation’ podcast has also raised eyebrows among party members, who remarked that it was a clear signal he was segueing to best place himself for a future new role. Some even described it as presidential-esque, given that topics such as wellbeing are being discussed.
However, many TDs feel Martin sees a “weakness” in Fine Gael and given that his popularity rating is high, others believe he will seek to get back into the Taoiseach’s office for a second time.
If he was to head to Brussels though, the party appears unsure about who would take over. Finance Minister Michael McGrath is viewed as the likely heir to Martin. But Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien is well liked within the party.
Members speak fondly of Jack Chambers and see him as a future leader if he gets the opportunity to be promoted to a senior Cabinet role.
He may have competition in a few years though, as it has been noted recently that the eldest son of Micheál Martin, Micheál Aodh, may follow in his father’s footsteps and pursue a political career.
It’s hard to believe that Eamon Ryan faced a leadership contest three years ago and won by a narrow majority. Mr Ryan won 994 of the 1,950 votes cast, with deputy leader Catherine Martin winning 946.
The narrow margin of victory was a surprise at the time, with questions about the durability of Mr Ryan’s leadership.
However, it appears that threat has disappeared. Even some supporters of Ms Martin are baffled at her laid-back approach to the RTÉ saga. She had the opportunity to stand out and show leadership, but she failed to do so.
The challenge facing Ryan is not only holding onto the few seats the party has, but the question over whether he would be welcomed back as a coalition partner.
The cracks have begun to appear in his relationship with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, who are particularly frustrated with what they call his anti-car sentiment. Ministers from both parties have tackled Mr Ryan over his department’s underspend in the roads budget.
A Cabinet memo outlined there was an underspend of almost €100m in his transport budget for the first three months of this year. He has also faced battles over climate emission targets and tension over the EU Nature Restoration Law.
Rural Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil TDs have said they would not go back into government again with the Green Party if the opportunity arose.
At the beginning of this month, Varadkar said in a radio interview “there’s a very good chance” that the current coalition Government will be re-elected.
What’s certain is that it will look very different if that comes to pass.
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