Elaine Loughlin: What can Leo Varadkar do to refresh the Fine Gael front bench?

A major reshuffle will undoubtedly cause friction within Leo Varadkar's ranks, but many in Fine Gael acknowledge that they cannot return to the electorate with the same front bench as in 2020.

One source said Leo Varadkar has been 'marking homework very closely' of ministers. Picture: Gareth Chaney/ Collins Photos

Fine Gael members have been ordered to begin campaigning for an election but, after more than a decade in power, the party acknowledges that it must go out with a different message and a fresh approach.

Fine Gael is at a crossroads that the party has ventured past before.

The direction Leo Varadkar takes in the coming months will be critical.

A lengthy PowerPoint presentation delivered to members at the think-in in Co Kilkenny yesterday aimed to hammer home the main selling points.

Members were told to go out to the public with the key phrases of "making work pay" and "putting money back in your pocket".

 Fine Gael cannot try to be everything to everyone if they are to reach the 32% support which has been identified as its core target audience and the percentage of the vote it might get on a very good day.

This would be a considerable jump from where the party is currently, lingering at around 20% or below.

But even if the new targeted messaging breaks through the blanket of Sinn Féin promises and slogans that are already resonating with voters, especially the younger generation, Fine Gael cannot run from the fact that its front bench has been sitting around the Cabinet table for a combined total of 46 years now.

No one is safe

At a parliamentary party meeting late last year, Mr Varadkar put his ministers on notice, telling them that no one was safe and he was not ruling out a significant reshuffle later this year.

The big question for Mr Varadkar come December will be whether he chooses the route already trodden or takes a chance on a different path which will undoubtedly cause friction within his ranks.

Mr Varadkar and his senior officials have been keeping a tight eye on the key performance indicators (KPIs) of each minister over the past 12 months.

One source said Mr Varadkar himself has been "marking homework very closely" of ministers, who could face the chop, and backbenchers, who could be promoted in any reshuffle.

Many in the party acknowledge that Fine Gael cannot return to the electorate with the same front bench as in 2020, and members are expecting significant changes, especially at junior minister level.

That means the incoming Taoiseach will have to disappoint a number of senior party members.

"At Cabinet level, there are three names that are being mentioned — Paschal [Donohoe], Simon Coveney, and Hildegard [Naughton] who of course is a super junior so sits at Cabinet," one Fine Gael source said.

Heather [Humphreys] is mentioned in that category as well, but I think if that were to happen, the Heather clique would not be happy, you would have a fair few of her supporters who would be very disaffected if he were to move her."

Mr Varadkar appeared to firmly rule out dropping Mr Donohoe or even moving him out of the finance portfolio yesterday, stating that his current position as chair of the Euro Group is the "most important position that any man or woman holds at the moment in the world."

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar and Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe. Picture: Colin Keegan, Collins Dublin

Cutting both Mr Coveney, Mr Donohoe, or other senior ministers, while highly controversial, would be seen as a way of renewing the front bench and the party without it being a "personal thing".

The source pointed out that the last time, when a number of senior ministers including Michael Creed, Richard Bruton, and Michael Ring were all demoted in one go, it "didn't make it easy, but made it easier."

While Mr Coveney is seen as a solid performer on Brexit and foreign affairs issues, one party member said "he's not buttering the parsnips" when it comes to more local issues or indeed keeping backbenchers on side.

"He has lost a lot of his political clout, especially around his handling of the Zappone stuff," said a Fine Gael TD, adding that significant delays in issuing passports also caused significant headaches for backbenchers last winter and into this year.

You cannot underestimate how important that was to the parliamentary party — I mean, our offices were absolutely inundated."

Noting that he has been at Cabinet since 2011, another Fine Gael source said the next change for him could be a quiet seat on the backbenches or perhaps out of Leinster House altogether.

One thing is certain, only two positions were agreed upon as part of the Coalition deal, and that is the revolving Taoiseach and Tánaiste arrangement — all other positions could be up for grabs.