Ukrainian refugees will be living in tents within a few weeks, admits McGrath
Minister for Public Accounts Michael McGrath is fast emerging as the man in his party most likely to replace Micheál Martin.
As the government’s money man, Michael McGrath spends most of his day saying no to endless demands for more money.
The 45-year-old Cork South Central Fianna Fáil TD since 2007 and married father of seven children is also fast emerging as the up and coming man in his party and seen as the most likely person to replace his sparring partner Micheál Martin.
Between the cost of living crisis, Ireland’s response to the war in Ukraine, a new public sector pay deal and his own future ambitions, there is a lot to discuss as we sit down in his office in Dublin.
We begin with a stark warning of large numbers of Ukrainian nationals arriving here in the coming weeks having to live in tents because we are about to run out of hotel rooms to house them.
“The most acute pressure that we're facing in the immediate term is that we are going to run out of that type of accommodation. Yes, we are going to see Ukrainian refugees, unfortunately, having to be accommodated in circumstances that none of us would have taught imaginable,” he says boldly.
I put it to him, are we talking about tents in places like the Defence Force base at Gormanston?
“Yes, I think we will most likely see that within weeks. Because we are going to simply run out of emergency accommodation. And bear in mind that all of this is coming on top of, you know, a very, very challenging housing situation,” he says.
He makes clear the cost of looking after the refugees from Ukraine who come here “could run into the billions”.
When I press him for more detail, he sets it out clearly.
“Based on a forecast of up to 100,000 people coming here by say, July of this year, the cost in the current year would be between €1.4bn and €1.7bn. And then the cost of looking after that number of people, about 100,000 through next year, could range from €2.4 billion to €2.8 billion.
McGrath makes clear that with the cost of living crisis, the Government is entering into a “very challenging period” where rising costs are hurting people and they are making the implementation of government policy quite difficult.
Despite those costs pressures, expected lower economic growth and spiralling national debt, McGrath insists there will be no cuts in October’s budget.
“We are not planning austerity, our overall projections remain valid, that the economy is in a healthy place. But we are facing rising bills as a government and we are going to have to manage those as best we can. And I absolutely believe we can avoid austerity,” he says.
The current public sector pay deal is due to lapse at the end of this year. It delivered a 3% pay increase for the 345,000 state employees over the past two years.
With inflation running at least 5%, a review of that deal has been triggered by the unions and a successor deal is eagerly awaited with unions demanding pay increases to match those rise in costs.
However, McGrath drops a bombshell.
He says the significant uncertainty thrown up by the war in Ukraine means a whole new deal that ties the government's hands for three or four years is not preferable given the levels of uncertainty around.
As a result, he makes clear he wants to see an “extension of the current deal” but also warns that the Government “can live without a deal”.
"Is this is an appropriate time to enter into a medium to long term agreement when you see inflation at the level it's at currently? And it's going to rise in the short term. This is an exceptional period.
"There is certainly an argument for seeking to reach an agreement whether it be by means of an extension of the existing one, or entering a new one that gets us through what is an exception period without making longer-term decisions at this time," he says.
He makes clear that he will not cut a deal at all costs. “So we can live without a deal. But it would be my preference to have a deal. Industrial peace is important, but not at all costs,” he says.
With the changeover of the Taoiseach’s office later this year, McGrath confirms that his tenure as Public Expenditure Minister will also end as it is expected the role of Finance Minister will also switch.
“I believe there will be a change in terms of the departments that the parties occupy. While the personnel is a matter for the party leaders, but to maintain a certain balance within government, the office of Taoiseach and the office of Minister for Finance should be in separate parties,” he says.
“I think that is an agreed principle. I would obviously love to be the Minister for Finance. But that's not a decision that I will make. But I do envisage a change,” he adds.
The awarding of a near €300,000 a year salary to Robert Watt, the Secretary-General in the Department of Health, McGrath accepts has caused “a lot of controversy”.
But as the man who signed off on the salary, he defends it despite scathing criticism from the Oireachtas Finance Committee and Public Accounts Committee.
He rejects the assertions that Watt’s appointment was ever a “fait accompli” as many opponents have suggested.
“I don't think we should, you know, cast any aspersions on the people who were involved in selection there. More than 20 people applied, some international. There was one name given to the Minister for Health, and he brought that to cabinet,” he says.
He also makes clear that the next Secretary-General to the Government, due to be appointed this year, will be paid on the existing salary of about €215,000 and not on a salary on par with Watt.
“The normal salary will apply for that grade of Secretary-General, so there will be no exception made for that particular role,” he insists.
McGrath has often had a rocky relationship with his leader and constituency rival Micheál Martin, but in government those tensions have been well hidden.
Asked to assess Martin’s desire to lead his party into the next election, McGrath is positive.
“I think he's doing I think you're doing an excellent job. And I think in many ways, it's come into his own and recent months. I think that he is seen to have handled the worst of Covid really well, and continues to have my full support and delighted to work with him,” he says.
McGrath is fast emerging as the most likely to replace Martin as leader, and I put it to him that he is doing all the things aspirant leaders should be, courting the backbenches, listening to colleagues and pressing the flesh.
“I do those things anyway, you know, it's that that's not manoeuvring on my part that's doing my job. So, I'm there to work with colleagues. That's not in any way positioning myself,” he insists.
Asked plainly does he want to be leader, he responds: “Well, you know my answer to that, Danny, I never speculate really on that. Out of loyalty in some ways, because I don't think it's helpful or fair to be indulging in in speculation about any personal ambition while an incumbent is still in office.”
Importantly, he did not rule it out and McGrath is now more than ever, the coming man.
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