Micheál Martin — the boxer's son may have one more fight left in him

For now, it is Micheál Martin's intention to be the first Taoiseach to become tánaiste. 

When he sat down for his Christmas roundtable interview with the nation's journalists last year, Micheál Martin was adamant about his plans when December 2022 rolls around.

“I am intrigued as to how this has developed into a storyline,” Mr Martin responded when asked whether he would still be at the helm of Fianna Fáil at the next general election.

"Yes, I’ve said this before, I am on the record as saying I intend to lead Fianna Fáil into the next election."

He will, he said, settle into the tánaiste role, taking up a ministerial portfolio and beginning the process of planning for the next election.

Wagons circling

That idea seemed ambitious at the start of 2021, when this paper reported that the wagons were circling among Fianna Fáil TDs with one minister saying, "there is not a snowball’s chance in hell in him leading us into the election". 

Michael Moynihan, the Cork North West TD whom Mr Martin overlooked for a junior ministry, said the Taoiseach would not even see out his term at the helm of the tripartite Government.

“There isn’t a way in God’s earth he’ll be leading the party into the next election,” Mr Moynihan told the Irish Examiner.

"Everyone in the street knows he’ll be very lucky if he serves out his term as Taoiseach. It is highly unlikely."

However, entering 2022, for Mr Martin, if not likely to become tánaiste next December, it is no longer seen as a done deal that he will be sent packing by his party, which has pulled level with Fine Gael in recent polls, in the latter half of the year. 

The boxer's son may have one more fight left in him.

A large part of this has been the failure during 2021 of any Fianna Fáil TD to emerge as a viable challenger for the title. 

Within Cabinet, his ministers have done little to rock the boat or openly undermine his leadership, even if Public Expenditure Minister Michael McGrath and Housing Minister Darragh O'Brien are considered among those who could fancy a shot at being tánaiste and leading the Soldiers of Destiny.

Outside of the tent, the agitator-in-chief Jim O'Callaghan has had a relatively quiet second half of the year following the party's woeful showing in Dublin Bay South, though he was one Fianna Fáil TD willing to raise his head above the parapet over the Katherine Zappone affair.

Others, such as Barry Cowen and Dara Calleary, are still tarnished but there is a road back that requires time. 

The latter gave what some in the room described as a "leadership speech" at the party's think-in in Cavan in September.

For Mr Martin, taking up the role of tánaiste would require him to take a ministry with it. 

Foreign Affairs would appeal if he is thinking of ending his career with this Government. 

Taoiseach's legacy

There, he could oversee the Shared Island Initiative, something he is keen to champion as a legacy of his time in office, and somewhere he would be comfortable, as evidenced by his September turn at the UN Security Council.

However, if not, he could slot into the Department of Higher Education, the existence of which is largely down to Mr Martin's insistence. 

Or, he could assume the role of tánaiste and announce a leadership battle before the jockeying for the next election gets underway.

All of this, of course, relies on nothing changing in a year. Which, in politics, just doesn't happen.

For now, it is his intention to be the first Taoiseach to become tánaiste. 

Much will depend on the next three months and Ireland's ongoing battle with Covid-19 restrictions to see how strong Mr Martin's position is this time next year.