Shauna Bowers: Covid-19 Delta wave is different but still dangerous

Vaccine uptake is very high, with almost 65% of the adult population fully vaccinated

HSE chief executive Paul Reid said the average age of cases over the past two weeks is 27 years, compared with 40 during the January surge. File picture: Brian Lawless

The country has become accustomed to the cycle of Covid-19 waves: Public health interventions flatten the curve and reduce the number of cases, only for them to rise rapidly once more as society begins to reopen.

It’s a trend we are already beginning to see again, with daily case numbers now at more than 1,000 per day, which is double the average daily case count of just two weeks ago.

Even though the pattern is the same, the risk factor of the fourth wave differs significantly as a result of the rollout of the vaccination programme.

The most recent figures from the HSE show that uptake of the jab is extremely high, with almost 65% of the adult population fully vaccinated.

Uptake rates

Some 99% of people over the age of 80 have taken the vaccine, there is a 98% uptake in the age group 70-79 and a 94% uptake for people aged between 60 and 69.

The uptake rate is 91% for people aged between 50 and 59, and it is 84% for those aged 40 to 49 years.

This is having a direct impact on the average age of new cases, with HSE chief executive Paul Reid saying that the average age of cases over the past two weeks is 27 years, compared with 40 during the January surge.

Around 5% of new cases have been identified in fully vaccinated individuals.

This age reduction for cases is positive for mortality rates.

The National Immunisation Advisory Committee has previously cited research which found if you compared a healthy 20- to 34-year-old with someone aged between 55 and 65, the older person is 70 times more likely to die due to Covid-19, over 20 times more likely to be admitted to ICU, and five times more likely to be hospitalised due to the virus.

However, despite this change in demographic, hospitals are still preparing for a surge, though not all of that is Covid-related.

The number of presentations to emergency departments has increased significantly in recent weeks, as too has the number of people on trolleys. 

The HSE said last week that hospitals are not far from the point at which they may need to defer scheduled care in order to maintain care for those with unscheduled care needs.

This is particularly concerning as we are at a time that is typically a quiet period for the health service.

If this high demand continues into the winter period — when influenza and the respiratory syncytial virus typically put hospitals under pressure — it could push the health service to a breaking point.

There are questions also around long Covid, about which much is still unknown. 

The symptoms vary from mild to very severe and range across fatigue, breathlessness from even mild exertion, chronic cough, and 'brain fog', though there is little data to quantify the extent to which people are suffering from the condition.

The race against the Delta variant is far from over, and vaccines are our greatest weapon in the fight. As public health experts have said — the best vaccine you can get is the one you can get the quickest.