Right candidate, right constituency, right time for Bacik

The 14-year senator put her victory down to her "positive, energetic campaign", but in reality it comes down to a simple confluence of right candidate, right constituency, right time.

The constituency of Dublin Bay South should be a Labour heartland, but that does not make the reality of Ivana Bacik's win less impressive.

Mixing working and middle classes, historically liberal, and with a recent history of two big-name TDs in Ruairi Quinn and Kevin Humphreys, it would not have been surprising to see the party outpoll its low national base across the constituency.

However, to see Labour do so by ten times was a shock to all but those inside Ivana Bacik's campaign. 

The 14-year senator put her victory down to her "positive, energetic campaign", but in reality it comes down to a simple confluence of right candidate, right constituency, right time.

While this government saw its overall vote decline, Fine Gael secured 26% of the first-choice vote, a massive amount in a 15-candidate field.

In the days leading up to the election, it was agreed that the only way that kind of performance was going to be beaten was if Ms Bacik was within four or five percentage points of James Geoghegan. 

In the end, she was, but she wasn't trailing him. Taking 30% of the vote, Ms Bacik proved that a strong personal brand and a connection with the local voter could overcome anaemic national opinion polling.

Labour Party members praised her energy, her positivity and her ability to connect with voters on doorsteps, saying that her work as a legislator, a campaigner and an activist had been recognised and rewarded by an electorate seeking a vote for change.

When an opinion poll showed Ms Bacik trailing Mr Geoghegan last week, it created a binary choice for many in the constituency between a government candidate and a non-government candidate. 

Some political operatives suggest that this may have taken votes from Fianna Fáil and the Greens, diverting them to Ms Bacik, but that ignores that Ms Bacik was and is a very strong candidate.

Well-liked locally, a nationally-known name and a body of work already done in the Oireachtas, Ms Bacik's result is neither over-achievement nor a protest against the Government.