Ireland's Defence Forces in the last chance saloon

The steady decline in its capabilities is past the point where it poses a long-term existential threat to the State itself, argues Colonel Dorcha Lee (retd)

Given the historical cyclical pattern of war in Europe, and the unique threat to internal security in Ireland, the steady decline in the Defence Forces' capabilities is past the point where it poses a long-term existential threat to the State itself.

 If the current decline in defence spending continues, at the same rate as it has over the past eight years, the Defence Forces will cease to exist within the next eight years. Since 1980, defence spending fell gradually by two thirds, from 1.67% of GDP in 1980, down to 0.56% in 2012. In the subsequent eight years to 2020, inclusive, it fell by half, from 0.56% to its current level of 0.27%. At an average annual decline of 0.035%, defence funding will cease completely in August 2028.

Given this situation, the Commission on the Defence Forces, which is due to report at the end of this year, could well conclude that the Defence Forces are underfunded and unable to realistically fulfil the roles assigned by the Government. It could recommend substantial increases in defence funding, over the next 10 years, to bring it up close to the EU average of 1.2% of GDP. Since conscription is not politically acceptable, the only viable alternative would be to phase out the Defence Forces and make alternative arrangements.