Paul Hosford: The top contenders for Murphy's Dublin Bay South seat
Former Fine Gael TD Kate O’Connell is a ready-made candidate but does not have the best relationship with party leader Leo Varadkar.
Eoghan Murphy has been a national figure for so long that it is easy to forget that he is not yet 40.
Swept to office in the Fine Gael wave of 2011, Mr Murphy's resignation on Tuesday as a TD for Dublin Bay South presents a challenge for a government not yet a year old.
Having taken much of that flak, he was then overlooked by his close ally Mr Varadkar for even a junior ministerial role, returning him to the backbenches.
There, he cut a frustrated figure and used some of his Dáil time and much of his time in parliamentary party meetings to rail against the Government's policy on Covid-19.
With a by-election due in the next six months, Dublin Bay South could be the first constituency to use the pandemic voting measures to be included in the Electoral Reform Bill, which is making its way through the Oireachtas at present. But the challenges will not be limited to social distancing or ensuring masks are worn at the ballot box.
For any government, by-elections represent what football analysts would call a "potential banana skin", not least when it is one of their own seats which has been vacated. The historical performance of government parties in those elections would not fill anyone in the coalition with confidence.
The Fine Gael-Labour coalition from 2011 to 2016 did manage to win three by-elections, but the last of those – the 2014 win of Gabrielle McFadden – was the last time the party was successful.
Of course, in Dublin Bay South, Fine Gael has a ready-made candidate. A former TD with a national profile who was in the mix to retain her seat just 14 months ago. The problem is that Kate O'Connell and Tánaiste Leo Varadkar aren't exactly what you would call best friends.
Ms O'Connell backed Simon Coveney in the 2017 race to be Fine Gael leader and referred to Mr Varadkar's supporters as "choirboys" and the division of the constituency organisation between her and and Mr Murphy is long-standing and bitter.
The party's hierarchy may be reluctant to run her unless absolutely necessary. With a Dáil majority now of just three seats – it would seem absolutely necessary.
For the Greens, too, the by-election poses an interesting conundrum on who to run. The obvious choice is Dublin Lord Mayor Hazel Chu. Well-known and respected across the political spectrum, Ms Chu took 33% of the first-preference vote in the Pembroke ward just two years ago and is the party's chairperson.
However, running in Dublin Bay South would mean seeking election in the back yard of her party leader Eamon Ryan. Ms Chu's recent Seanad run, outside of the party's backing, has seen the two at loggerheads. Would the Transport Minister give his backing to a member of his party likely to fight Government policy on many key issues if elected?
Sinn Féin does not yet have an obvious candidate, with party sources saying it is weighing up its options. Some in the party have suggested a "big name" could run and the most likely choice on that criteria is Lynn Boylan. Ms Boylan is a former MEP, a current senator and an articulate and passionate politician.
The election, however and whenever it is held, will become, like many others, a referendum on this Government's handling of the last year and could become the most important vote in the lifetime of this coalition.
CONNECT WITH US TODAY
Be the first to know the latest news and updates
