Trump v Biden: Which states are left to be called and when are we likely to see a result?
An election worker handles ballots as vote counting in the general election continues at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. Picture: AP Photo/Brynn Anderson
Depending on where you’re following the proceedings, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the US Presidential race by either 253 delegates to 213, or by 264 delegates to 213 right now.
With some key states still calculating their tallies, how are things likely to play out from here, and what needs to happen for us the see a definitive result?
We try to answer some of the big questions below:
Five key states remain to be counted in the US Presidential Race - Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Joe Biden has overtaken President Donald Trump in the State of Pennsylvania. He leads by the narrowest of margins - 0.1%, roughly 5,587 votes.
Mr Trump had initially led in Pennsylvania, however, his lead shrank considerably this morning overnight as more and more mail-in ballots were counted.
With 95% of votes now tallied here, and if current trends hold, Mr Biden would secure a victory in Pennsylvania.
Were he to win this state, he would surpass the 270 delegates required to win the Presidency, regardless of how Mr Trump does elsewhere.
Joe Biden has just overtaken Donald Trump in the State of Georgia - a traditional republican stronghold.
Mr Biden now holds a narrow 917-vote lead.
As with Pennsylvania, Georgia had yesterday been showing a considerable lead for Mr Trump, but again, as mail-in votes and absentee ballots came in from urban areas, his lead was completely erased.
An estimated 99% of votes have been counted in Georgia and a result is expected sometime today.
Another key state.
Some publications, including Fox News and the Associated Press, have already called this state for former Vice President Biden.
At the time of writing, Mr Biden is ahead by 47,052 votes (1.6%), with 90% of votes reported.
Mr Biden had held a larger lead, but absentee votes in this state have leaned more towards Mr Trump.
However, most forecasters, even those who have not called this for Mr Biden, believe Mr Trump will struggle to make up ground here.
Vote leads as of 5:30 a.m. ET Friday:
— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 6, 2020
• Georgia (99% in): Biden +917
• Nevada (89%): Biden +11,438
• Pennsylvania (94%): Trump +18,229
• Arizona (90%): Biden +47,052
Another close race.
Currently, Mr Biden leads Nevada by roughly 11,000 votes, with 89% of votes reported.
The majority of votes remaining to be counted here are mail-in ballots from more densely-populated urban areas, such as Clark County, where Las Vegas is located, and Washoe County, where Reno is located.
This would give Mr Biden the advantage here.
President Trump is leading in North Carolina.
At present, he is ahead by more than 78,000 votes, with 95% of votes reported.
Most publications expect North Carolina to go to Mr Trump.
At this point, Joe Biden.
If the Democratic nominee wins Pennsylvania, he will become the next US President, no matter what the results are anywhere else.
If Mr Biden picks up Arizona, as he is expected to, a win any other state (Nevada, Georgia or Pennsylvania) would also put him over the line.
Mr Trump needs wins in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina to be re-elected.
The question on everyone’s mind.
In truth, there a lot of factors that could decide this, so it could take days, weeks, or even months for a conclusive result.
In past elections, major American news outlets have 'called' a state for one candidate when, through their own tallying, they suppose that the candidate's lead is insurmountable in that state.
When a candidate reaches the 270 delegate total, the overall race would then be 'called'.
These decisions are not based on the final vote count but are almost invariably accurate.
Because of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the record numbers of early, absentee, and mail-in votes, there is a lot of uncertainty and delay in several states, and thus, there hasn't been any decisive 'calls' made yet.
Most of the states mentioned above allow mail-in votes to be counted until tonight, provided they are post-marked on or before election day.
With 99% of votes counted, the soonest result expected is in Georgia.
The state is in a statistical dead-heat right now, but if Mr Biden won here, he would be just one delegate shy of victory by some publications' tallying (Reuters, CNN for example), and he would be declared the overall winner by others (Associated Press, Fox).
A win in Georgia would all but clinch the Presidency for Joe Biden.
The 'official' result declaration is another matter.
Mr Trump's campaign has already filed numerous lawsuits in several states for alleged breaches of electoral law.
His repeated claims of fraud and vote-rigging have been debunked, but he has threatened to take the matter to the US Supreme Court.
The Trump campaign has already sued to halt vote-counting in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan, but judges in Georgia and Michigan (already called for Joe Biden), quickly dismissed the lawsuits. Other states are likely to do the same.
Mr Trump’s campaign has also requested a recount in Wisconsin, which was called for Joe Biden.
There is no indication that any of President Trump's claims are true, or that they will have any bearing on the election result. They may however slow things down somewhat.
In short, we will have to wait a while longer to see a definitive result.
