Will women defeat Poland’s illiberal regime?
Women's rights activists with posters of the Women's Strike action protest against the recent tightening of Poland's restrictive abortion. Picture: AP/Czarek Sokolowski
Authoritarian political leaders in Poland and Belarus have tested the limits of public tolerance in recent months. In both countries, they have provoked mass demonstrations. And in both cases, women have been in the front ranks of popular opposition.
In a rigged election on August 9, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko gave himself 80% of the vote when a more plausible 55% would have sufficed. Poles followed the events in Belarus closely and with admiration, hoping for similar mass opposition to the increasingly despotic Law and Justice (PiS) government.
Then, on October 22, with Covid-19 infections rising exponentially, Poland’s de facto ruler, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński, effectively dared Polish citizens to take to the streets. Having stacked the country’s constitutional tribunal with PiS lackeys, Kaczyński ordered the court to issue a ruling all but banning abortion.
Lessons from Minsk - Sławomir Sierakowski, interviewed by Matt SeatonThe Polish writer and activist on how Belarusians are schooling the world in a mass movement for democracy. https://t.co/K7RlZVmb6Q
— Tactical Tech (@Info_Activism) October 31, 2020
For the past 27 years, Poland’s already restrictive abortion law allowed a woman to terminate a pregnancy only when her life was at risk, the pregnancy resulted from incest or rape, or the foetus was damaged. The new ruling removes the last exception, meaning that women will be forced to bear children who have little or no chance of survival.
The subsequent mass protests are unlike anything seen in Poland since PiS came to power in 2015. Some 100,000 people marched in Warsaw, and more than 500,000 nationwide. And, as in Belarus, women played the leading role.
Stunning picture of Warsaw as estimated 100,000 protested for women's rights.
— Jakub Krupa (@JakubKrupa) October 31, 2020
(ht @BDStanley) pic.twitter.com/8Zuv18l1yu
That is no accident. One lesson from Belarus is that regular organised action is crucial, so Poles have committed to blocking major intersections throughout the country every Monday.
Belarus’s experience has also shown that people will risk their health to protest against authoritarian power grabs, especially given the authorities’ failure to manage the pandemic. Poland’s infection rate is now among the highest in the world.
In Poland’s most recent parliamentary elections, the extreme nationalist party Konfederacja won 11 seats in the Sejm (the lower chamber of parliament). Kaczyński perceives this as a personal defeat, because he has always sought to be at the Polish parliament’s right-most extreme.
Konfederacja is growing in strength, which is mobilising the right-wing faction within Kaczyński’s camp associated with the justice minister, Zbigniew Ziobro. Without Ziobro’s support, Kaczyński does not have a parliamentary majority.
Moreover, Ziobro is competing directly with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to position himself as Kaczyński’s eventual successor. When Kaczyński came in from the sidelines to become deputy prime minister in the current government this past September, it was so that he could keep closer tabs on Ziobro, whom he hopes to reconcile with Morawiecki.
Kaczyński’s sharp ideological shifts should thus be understood as part of a broader attempt to reclaim control over the far right.
In a special address responding to the protests, Kaczyński called on PiS members to fight those standing up for women’s rights. “In particular, we must defend Polish churches,” he declared: “We must defend them at any cost. I call on all members of PiS and all those who support us to take part in the defense of the Church.... Now is a time when we must say ‘no’ to everything that can destroy us... Let’s defend Poland!”
After one hooligan with a criminal record assaulted a journalist, Ziobro stepped in to prevent the local prosecutor’s office from arresting the assailant. Charges were, however, brought against a 14-year-old girl arrested during the protests.
Both sides have learned from Belarus’s experience. The Polish government has deployed hundreds of police and military personnel to tear-gas women protesting in front of Kaczyński’s house. But not all uniformed personnel are willing to brutalise demonstrators.
Police Inspector General Jarosław Szymczak, for example, has threatened to resign. And in a recent open letter, 210 retired military, police, and security service generals warned that the abortion decision “has caused public opposition and mass street protests" and warned further escalation will lead to "tragic consequences".
Zwiazki miedzy oboma rzadami sa pewnie scislejsze niz gotowi sa to oficjalnie przyznac. Slawomir Sierakowski publikowal zdjecia produkowanej w Polsce gumowej amunicji, ktora policja Lukaszenki pacyfikuje demonstrujace tlumy.https://t.co/Cg87rZgbKW
— moving to @drjacekdebiec.bsky.social 🌎🔥 (@DebiecJacek) October 29, 2020
As matters stand, it appears that Kaczyński has blundered badly. In a recent poll, 73% of respondents said they are against the Tribunal’s ruling (including 60% who are strongly opposed).
Even the PiS base is divided, with 37% supporting the judgment and 36% opposing it. As a result, PiS’s support overall has fallen sharply for the first time since it came to power. In a Kantar poll published on October 28, the party had just 26% support.
As a result, there is growing disappointment with Kaczyński within PiS. While there still is no alternative leader, and the next scheduled general election is not until 2023, infighting within the ruling camp could eventually lead to an early vote, as happened with the first PiS government in 2007.
Like Lukashenko, Kaczyński clearly overplayed his hand. And, as in Belarus, women have been the first to smack it away.
