Confidence-supply no longer ensures government stability
Resignations and defections have changed the Dáil voting arithmetic, so that non-aligned Independents now hold the balance of power, says
The Dáil voting arithmetic has changed substantially since the negotiation of the confidence-and-supply agreement between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in 2016. The agreement allows the Fine Gael-led minority government to win votes of no-confidence, and undertake cabinet reshuffles and budgets, provided Fianna Fáil abstain.
It has been extended to cover one more budget and provide Government stability during Brexit uncertainty. However, continuing confidence-and-supply no longer guarantees government survival.
This altered Dáil arithmetic was brought into stark focus by last week’s vote of no-confidence in Minister for Health, Simon Harris.
Over the last three years, defections, expulsions, and resignations have ensured that even should Fianna Fáil abstain on critical votes, the Government is no longer guaranteed to win those votes. Confidence-and-supply no longer ensures that Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil have the ultimate say on the continuation of the Government.
- Stephen Donnelly has moved from the Social Democrats to Fianna Fáil and thus from opposition to abstention
- Peter Fitzpatrick has lost the Fine Gael whip and has moved from supporting the Government to opposition
- Denis Naughten, having resigned from Government, can vote as he chooses, but, so far, has decided to support the Government; however, his vote is not guaranteed
I have moved from supporting the Government to opposition, based on health mismanagement and failure to support rural sustainability. Carol Nolan and Peadar Toibin have resigned from Sinn Féin, but will continue to oppose the Government.
Apart from the 21 Sinn Fein TDs, who proposed the vote of no-confidence, 32 other members, from smaller parties, technical groupings, and Independents, voted noconfidence in Mr Harris.
Votes of no-confidence are critical in any parliament and define the strength and ability of the ruling parties to govern and retain political authority
Mr Harris survived the vote of no confidence by 58 votes to 53, with Fianna Fail abstaining. 58 votes represent 37% of the 158 TDs in Dail Éireann, which is not exactly a ringing vote of confidence in his tenure as minister, or this minority coalition’s ability to manage our health service.
Those voting to support Mr Harris consist of 49 Fine Gael TDs, four from the Independent Alliance, together with two non-aligned Independent ministers, all 55 TDs being members of Government. The three additional votes in favour of Mr Harris were provided by Independent TDs Michael Lowry, Noel Grealish, and Denis Naughten. If they had voted against Mr Harris, then, in spite of Fianna Fáil abstaining, as agreed in confidence-and-supply, he would have lost the confidence of the Dáil, he would have lost his ministry, and the Government may have collapsed.
It is now the case that Fianna Fáil maintaining confidence-and-supply does not guarantee that the Government can get through crucial Dáil votes, particularly budgetary votes. Thus, the Government is no longer solely dependent on Fianna Fáil for its survival, but is additionally dependent on the votes of non-aligned independent TDs.
The voting intentions of these non-aligned TDs are thus critical for Government survival and their voting patterns will be interesting to follow over the remaining lifetime of this Dáil, as they are in the “twilight zone” of critical floating votes, which can go either way, depending on how closely the Government courts their support.
Given this new voting reality in the Dáil, it is not exclusively in the gift of Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin to decide on the continuation of this Government, in spite of maintaining the confidence-and-supply agreement.
Effectively, these three Independent TDs hold the balance of power and are in a pivotal position to decide on the future of Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, Mr Martin, and the survival of this Government.
To use Brexit terminology, the confidence-and-supply agreement is no longer a “bulletproof” backstop ensuring the continuation of the Fine Gael-led coalition, as it also requires the support of “twilight zone” independents.
