Make or break time for Brexit —again

Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but... this week is make or break time for Brexit. Again.

After just about clambering over the first hurdle by dragging the backstop agreement through a five-hour British cabinet meeting last week, Theresa May might be hoping for a quieter few days, as might Leo Varadkar.

However, with a potential House of Commons no-confidence motion, five British cabinet members saying they want to rewrite the deal, and a crunch EU summit looming on Sunday, they may have to settle for a week of sleepless nights instead.

Today: D-day for Ms May. When the British prime minister steps into Westminster today she could be marching to her own death sentence, amid claims more than 48 Brexiteers have formally asked for her to be removed — triggering a no-confidence motion.

The potential move could derail the backstop deal entirely, and may even plunge Britain into a snap election. A similar scenario will surround Ms May’s cabinet meeting where five ministers are standing by her, for now, on condition the deal is renegotiated. However, even if 48 Brexiteers do put their money where their considerable mouths are, there is a question mark over whether they will clearly win a no-confidence motion.

That, in itself, could silence the ministerial plotting.

A steely resolve has come over Ms May, so don’t be surprised if she somehow survives and pushes onwards to a December Westminster backstop vote. The deal depends on it.

Tomorrow: Never one to shy away from the spotlight, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will hope to take centre-stage during a planned four-hour Dáil debate and vote on the deal.

Given the fact the backstop deal is between the EU and Britain, it may seem irrelevant. But to think that is to miss the political sleight of hand taking place. Mr Varadkar’s official reason for tabling the Brexit debate and vote is to publicly show Europe, and perhaps the world, universal Irish political backing for the deal.

However, his real focus is just as much on home turf, as receiving the official backing of all parties will remove a key obstacle to any snap general election here, side-stepping Fianna Fáil’s call for no election while Brexit is still undecided.

Sunday: D-day. Again. If the deal, and the PM, are still intact by the weekend, EU leaders will hold an emergency summit to discuss and sign off on the backstop agreement. It will mark the formal agreement by the remaining 27 member states to support the deal before the 585-page document is sent for an EU parliament vote early next year.

The “we stand together” choreography and photo opportunities will dominate, with the political glad-handing essential to protecting Ireland from the Brexit fallout, just when the support is needed most.