Troops nearly ready for battle, but is Ireland?

Party leader Leo Vardakar keeps insisting (at least on RTÉ) there will be no early election. Trouble is, someone forgot to tell the troops at the ard fheis, writes Juno McEnroe.

Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan led the bursts of enthusiasm for a snap poll, asserting the printing presses for posters and campaign materials were “well oiled”.

The chances of a snap poll and the Brexit withdrawal deal were the two topics du jour at the 2,500-strong gathering in CityWest, Dublin.

Tánaiste Simon Coveney threw down a gauntlet early on Saturday morning, at a press conference. The deal with Fianna Fáil would be off unless Fine Gael gets clarity, and soon.

The parties are in talks behind closed doors, looking at whether the confidence and supply agreement can be renewed. Fianna Fáil have dug in their heels, refusing to commit to anything until a review is done, while Fine Gael’s frustration is mounting as its appeal for two years more of the Government support pact remains unanswered.

Mr Coveney made it clear: All bets are off unless Fianna Fáil signs up and quickly.

“We will not stay in Government without clarity in terms of the confidence and supply agreement.

“You cannot run a Government working week-to-week. That’s why these negotiations are serious in terms of trying to provide stability.”

But he said the party was primed for all eventualities.

“We are a party that is election-ready — we are certainly not taking for granted the successful outcome of the Confidence and Supply discussions.”

Ministers and Fine Gael TDs are indeed hungry to go to the people. They are riding high in the polls, reaching 36% earlier this year, and know that this fortune may not last too long.

It won’t be long before the winter hospital crisis dominates the headlines; before any fall-out over Brexit hits home; before further scrutiny over a worsening housing crisis.

By Saturday afternoon, Mr Varadkar told reporters the party was indeed “almost election-ready”. However, he did concede that his primary interest is “not electoral”.

Fine Gael chose “Taking Ireland Forward Together” as its conference logo — a little more sensitive than its failed 2016 general election motto of “Keep the Recovery Going”. And the party wants to ensure it comes across as more caring, or at least responsible if and when an election comes.

While housing and health remain the Achilles’ heel, there was a buzz around the CityWest hotel, with young election candidates eager to press the flesh.

For a change, there was little or no griping from disgruntled backbenchers or ministers, with all fully behind the party leader, if not fully believing his insistence that we won’t be going to the polls before Christmas, while at the same time admitting that decision wasn’t entirely in his hands.

Despite the desire from the root and branch, it seems unlikely there will be an election for a few months, given the uncertainty over Brexit and no obvious reason (yet) to face the electorate.

The ard fheis also saw members debate rural Ireland, climate change, Garda resources, as well as a special motion to allow for another conference in March. The latter included discussion around what members might allow if there is another coalition option for Fine Gael.

Many see this as a block on Fine Gael doing business with Sinn Féin, if numbers require this after the next election.

So what else did we learn about Fine Gael over the weekend? There seems to be a lot of internal chatter about when an election may be needed or called, rather than what Mr Varadkar’s party might offer voters in the way of a campaign.

The Taoiseach moved to address this gap at a doorstep on Saturday afternoon, saying he now wanted to negotiate “deliverables” for voters with Fianna Fáil during those talks.

This is where the party falls down. It may get a Brexit bounce, as seen last December when the backstop guarantee for a frictionless border was clinched. But more than this is surely needed to go to the people.

Not that there was a lack of rhetoric at CityWest.

Health Minister Simon Harris wants universal health care, not to mention more hospital beds. Housing Minister Eoghan Murphy wants more houses. Leo promised to repay Middle Ireland with a tax bonanza and a little something for everyone in the audience.

The Fine Gael troops might be almost election- ready, but is the party message? And more importantly, is the country?