Fianna Fáil must be careful not to derail its comeback

Five years on from its own political meltdown, Fianna Fáil is today celebrating one of the most unlikely electoral comebacks in Irish history.

To paraphrase WB Yeats, all has changed, changed utterly. However, if Fianna Fáil is not careful, it may find that, beneath the initial glory, a terrible beauty has been born.

The route that the soldiers of destiny take back to power could make or break the comeback, an issue that will not be lost on senior party officials as they prepare for government negotiations.

Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition

A coalition of the old civil war parties would allow Fianna Fáil the most obvious route back to power and, given their closeness in seat numbers, it is not a stretch to believe it would be more of a meeting of equals than the traditional senior/junior coalition set-up.

However, while it would give them the keys to government, entering power with Fine Gael would leave the door wide open for Sinn Féin to possibly waltz into government at the next time of asking after a Dáil term spent as the main opposition party.

It would also mean the suggestion Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are little more than different sides of the same coin would become even more apparent — risking a potential future split by certain TDs who still have eyes for civil war politics.

Minority government

Given both parties’ reluctance to a form a coalition, this is currently the most likely outcome and, in theory, it would suit Fianna Fáil perfectly.

Right now, Fine Gael is weak, and encouraging it to continue with opposition support would allow Fianna Fáil to have all the real power as it could call a snap election on its own terms, avoid negative government decisions, and block off Sinn Féin’s opposition growth.

The problem, however, is that despite the anger at Fine Gael-Labour shown through the ballot boxes, the public wants stability and a minority government simply isn’t it, something voters may not forgive Fianna Fáil for if a safer option is available but ignored.

A government excluding Fine Gael

This option was specifically mentioned by Micheál Martin on Saturday afternoon in a move that is half honest appraisal of the election result and half brinksmanship before the real negotiations begin.

Officially, Fianna Fáil’s view is that it is up to Fine Gael to seek to form a government and that Fianna Fáil will separately nominate Mr Martin as taoiseach when the Dáil resumes on March 10.

In theory, Fianna Fáil could do this by seeking the help of the remnants of Labour and Independents — possibly 30 — or by encouraging Fine Gael to back a Fianna Fáil-led minority government from opposition, something Fine Gael TDs have suggested.

But, as one senior Fianna Fáil TD told the Irish Examiner, it is next to impossible to believe so many deals can be struck by a government that has any genuine interest in stability.

With electoral success come difficult decisions, and all have the potential to make or break the party’s comeback.