Constituency profile: Cork South Central

In any election, there are always a handful of constituencies where it is inevitable that some high-profile blood will be left on the floor.

And in general election 2016, Cork South Central is a nailed-on certainty for the bloodbath list.

Due to controversial boundary changes, five sitting TDs — a Government minister with eyes on being a future Taoiseach, the opposition leader, an opposition finance spokesman, the chair of the bank inquiry, and one of the chief proponents of the coalition’s marriage equality campaign — are battling for just four Dáil positions in the sprawling Cork locality.

Add into the mix a young but feisty first-time Sinn Féin candidate who was controversially chosen instead of the more established councillor Chris O’Leary, and it is guaranteed that at least one high-profile figure will lose out despite their reputation.

It is widely expected that the first three seats will be taken up by Fine Gael’s Agriculture Minister Simon Coveney, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, and his finance spokesman Michael McGrath.

Each one is reluctant to admit they are a frontrunner despite all the evidence suggesting this fact, with a particularly interesting sub-plot involving who finishes higher between Mr Martin and Mr McGrath, given the ongoing rumours about Fianna Fáil’s leadership after the election.

For more election news, analysis and general banter join us HERE

The final position will be a three-way fight between Fine Gael TD and health committee chair Jerry Buttimer, Labour TD and bank inquiry chair Ciaran Lynch, and first-time Sinn Féin councillor Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire.

While Mr Ó Laoghaire is likely to be in the mix on first preferences due to the national push for new faces, he is expected to struggle to gain enough transfers.

Mr Buttimer is considered more likely than Mr Lynch to secure the fourth seat, given the fact he will benefit from a strong vote surplus transfer from his running mate, Mr Coveney, despite Labour’s canvassers encouraging voters to back their man in order to ensure Fine Gael does not return to power by itself.

It's all to play for as Election 2016 campaigns enter their final days https://t.co/qJKrzBNKHd (DOD) #GE16 pic.twitter.com/7lsAXaI5Wh

— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) February 22, 2016

The boundary changes in the constituency have mostly affected Mr Buttimer (down 1,400 estimated votes), Mr Martin (down 1,000), Mr Lynch (down 800), and Mr McGrath (down 500), meaning further upsets could be hinted on the first counts.

The situation, coupled with Mr McGrath’s growing national profile, could see him and Mr Martin far closer in the vote than 2011, while it could also drag down Mr Buttimer and Mr Lynch into a three-horse race for the final seat with newcomer Ó Laoghaire.

For more election news, analysis and general banter join us HERE