It's all to play for as Election 2016 campaigns enter their final days

As this election campaign enters its final days, voters will soon decide who runs the country for the next five years. This is the most crucial part of the campaign.

Messages have been fine-tuned, some badly; economic calculations have been completed, some inaccurately; party leaders have spoken, some clumsily; and promises have been made, some brazenly.

Surprise results in weekend polls sent shockwaves through the parties. Some political figures were jubilant, others were dismayed. Labour’s woes were compounded by a leaked Sunday Times poll, on Friday night, which showed its support halving, and dropping to 4%.

Immediately, the Anti-Austerity Alliance and People Before Profit were boasting about their new-found 5% level of support, while Independent Alliance de-facto leader, Shane Ross, could not wipe the smile off his face yesterday, after his group went ahead of Labour.

Labour is in dire straits. Even given the room for error in that new poll, it will be a tough week ahead for the party that, five years ago, brought 37 TDs to the Dáil. Under current predictions, Labour would be lucky to get 10 returned.

But party strategists are more optimistic. They point to last-minute decisions by voters, and a possible swing in their favour. The junior coalition partner also plans a last-minute leaflet blitz, as part of its efforts to go above 10% on polling day, this Friday. These will focus on the theme of ‘only with Labour’. The leaflets, which will be dropped through people’s doors, will focus on why only Labour’s tax plans would best help low-and middle-income earners, why only its position in government will address social issues (such as a move to repeal the Eighth Amendment), and why only its presence in government would guarantee investment in services. It remains to be seen if the ploy works.

Meanwhile, Enda Kenny went the way of incumbent leaders and election gaffes, yesterday, when he declared that some of his own constituents were “All-Ireland champion whingers” giving out about the recovery not working. Yes, that’s right. The man who wants to be the first Fine Gael taoiseach returned successfully dropped a complete clanger in his own backyard, in Castlebar, on Saturday night.

Furthermore, when asked by the media, yesterday, if he regretted the remarks, a somewhat giddy Kenny replied (to loud applause from Fine Gael handlers): “No. Some of them wouldn’t know sunshine if they saw it.”

Former taoiseach Bertie Ahern was also prone to the odd gaffe during election campaigns, when he said, in the 2007 race, that those complaining about the economy overheating were “cribbers and moaners”.

You would have imagined, though, that Mr Kenny would have been more humble about people who disagreed that the recovery has been steaming ahead, as Fine Gael’s campaign has been suggesting it has.

Indeed, privately, Fine Gael ministers want to row back on the ‘keep the recovery going’ message, which the party has plastered all over the country. This was also evident during a final party rally at election headquarters in Dublin yesterday. Mr Kenny never mentioned the phrase once. Expect his critics, though, to seize on the ‘whingers’ remark in the days ahead.

Fine Gael insiders admit the party is well short of its target 35% in the polls. Most senior figures were hoping for a mid-60s in the number of seats. It’s a bit too late for panic stations, though, and, instead, vote management will be crucial in constituencies, as well as last-minute messaging on the ground.

All eyes tomorrow will turn to the final TV leaders’ debate. The RTÉ event could be a do-or-die moment for Labour leader, Joan Burton, who underperformed in the last two and is under huge pressure.

Nonetheless, she could have the most to gain. However, most attention is expected to focus on Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, and their interaction, as both bid to win the middle ground and destroy each other’s record in office.

While Mr Martin’s performance in the debates, and in the campaign, has surpassed expectations, Mr Kenny has most to lose. The Taoiseach has kept a calm, statesman-like persona during exchanges and we can probably expect the same when all four leaders face the cameras, one last time, tomorrow night. No-one, especially not Mr Kenny, will want to slip up just days before polling.