Constituency profile: Mayo

In 2011, the ascension of Enda Kenny from opposition leader to Taoiseach and the possibilities this offered his county was for some people in Mayo, home of the Knock shrine, like the second coming of Christ.

However, fast-forward five years and it is clear the faith of a significant percentage of voters in the tightly contested constituency is wavering, meaning Fine Gael’s landslide success is unlikely to be repeated.

While the main government party won a historic four of the five seats on offer in 2011 — including the first three positions — boundary changes mean it can be certain of only two seats from four available in 2016, offering a reality check that should not go unnoticed in coalition circles.

Five years ago, Mr Kenny topped the poll and was elected on the first count with more than 17,000 first preferences.

However, local frustrations about the fact that more than 12,000 people in the county remain unemployed and 20% of shops in Castlebar, the Taoiseach’s home town, are closed have led to rival claims the Fine Gael leader, while easily being re-elected, could lose up to 6,000 votes this time.

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The first seat is expected to be won by Fine Gael Sports Minister Michael Ring who is expected to benefit from increased support across the county because of the belief he has done more for grassroots in the area over the past five years. He is predicted to win the seat, despite losing a likely 1,500 first preferences due to the fact that parts of his south Mayo hinterland have moved into the Galway West constituency.

Fianna Fáil’s jobs spokesman Dara Calleary is also a near certain bet to hold onto his seat, potentially pipping a wounded Taoiseach for second place.

With Fine Gael TD John O’Mahony moving to the Galway West constituency due to the boundary changes, three women are expected to fight it out for the final Mayo seat, although a push from one of a number of Independents cannot be ruled out.

First-time Fine Gael TD Michelle Mulherin — who has courted controversy since entering the Dáil due to remarks about “fornication” and a separate phone expenses scandal — can expect to benefit from being the only candidate from her party in the north of the county. However, due to Mr Ring’s expected widely spread vote-grabbing this opportunity may be dampened.

New Fianna Fáil candidate Lisa Chambers is also in contention. And an expected tightly run first-second preference split between her base in Castlebar and running mate Mr Calleary’s in Ballina means she is a viable contender.

So too is Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway Walsh, who is expected to seek out the protest vote from those who believe the recovery has yet to come to their door. However, while Sinn Féin winning a Fine Gael seat in the Taoiseach’s own backyard would be a major feather in its cap, election 2016 may be one vote too soon for the party in the constituency.

With Independent councillor Michael Kilcoyne — who finished just short of the podium in 2011 and had been tipped to take a seat this time around — not running for health reasons, the door could also be open for a late run by a number of other Independents.

They include ex-TD Jerry Crowley; Peter Jordan and George O’Malley of the 2015-formed First Independent Mayo; and anti-eviction campaigner Gerry O’Boyle.

At Fine Gael’s Mayo constituency selection convention in October, Taoiseach Enda Kenny gave a rousing speech to party members, saying it is possible to continue the 2011 stranglehold on the constituency.

Possible, but five years on it is now far from a foregone conclusion.

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