Constituency profile: Roscommon-Galway

It may not garner as many headlines as other areas nationally, but Roscommon-Galway is likely to prove remarkable for a number of record breaking reasons in election 2016.

While the constituency itself is new, any constituency involving Roscommon holds the unusual record of never having returned the same complement of TDs from one election to the next, an issue guaranteed to be repeated this month.

It is almost certain to elect Independent candidates to the top two positions in the three-seat constituency, a high-water mark that underlines the new reality Irish politics finds itself in.

In 2011, the Roscommon-South Leitrim constituency saw Fine Gael TDs Denis Naughten and Frank Feighan finish behind Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan. However, while Mr Naughten — now an Independent after leaving Fine Gael in 2011 due to the Roscommon County Hospital downgrading controversy — remains in 2016, Mr Feighan has declined to run after describing himself as “toxic” due to the same issue, and the high-profile Mr Flanagan is now an MEP.

In his place, the 2014 by-election winner, Independent Alliance TD Michael Fitzmaurice, has become a serious player in the constituency.

Along with Mr Naughten he will challenge for top spot, in part because the Williamstown-based public representative is likely to benefit most from 20,521 more votes coming into the constituency from east Galway due to boundary changes.

However, it will be interesting to see what level of support backers of Mr Flanagan give his replacement after rumours last year the MEP wanted to return.

Fine Gael can expect to be in contention for the final seat through candidate Maura Hopkins, who may gain transfers from ex-party colleague Mr Naughten in a constituency which traditionally provides a seat for the government party.

However, she is likely to face considerable competition from Fianna Fáil’s last-minute ticket add-on Shane Curran, the ex-Roscommon inter-county goalkeeper.

His presence has significantly beefed up the opposition party’s chances in an area that has been the subject of serious difficulties for the Soldiers of Destiny.

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In 2011, Fianna Fáil TD Michael Finneran chose not to run, while candidates Ivan Connaughton and Gerry Kilrane took just 15% of the total vote — down from the party’s 38.9% in 2007.

Ex-minister Conor Lenihan failed to win enough support to run. The fractious convention ultimately chose experienced councillor Eugene Murphy, before Mr Curran was added the following day.

Sinn Féin’s candidate, Claire Kerrane, 23, is tipped to poll better than expected. However, the same can’t be said for Labour’s John Kelly.

The senator threatened to pull out of the race unless party colleague Environment Minister Alan Kelly agreed to cancel a planned decision on whether to move the more affluent part of south Roscommon to Westmeath. However, while he is running, this decision is still set for February 29 — three days after the election.

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