A long and bumpy ride to the hustings for Coalition
In an attempt to regain the political initiative after a torrid six months of dither and drift, which saw the Government blown off course by everything from accusations of cronyism to public outrage at the mismanagement of Irish Water, Mr Kenny has tried to turn the spotlight back on the economy.
Knowing the party that frames the tone of the election campaign usually wins, he wants voters to go to the ballot booth with the question in their head being: “Will a change of Government damage the recovery?”, not: “Could any Government be more incompetent than this one?”
And so, in a concerted action, the Taoiseach and Finance Minister Michael Noonan have turned their fire on Sinn Féin, painting them as the only alternative government, and one that would be reckless with the recovery.
This strategy has annoyed Fianna Fáil and Labour no end as they are cast into irrelevance in this scenario.
The move has led to a febrile atmosphere in Leinster House with talk of an early election with the Government going to the country in the summer.
Though Mr Kenny told senior Fine Gael figures he is serious about seeing out his full term and not calling an election until spring 2016, few around him think this is the best option.
Most expect a generous budget in October, followed by a Dáil poll in early November.
The only reason for going to the country earlier would be if the economic numbers turn sour and Fine Gael calculates it would be in its best interests to go while the going is good.
The Coalition is desperate to regain the focus and internal discipline it achieved in its first two and a half years before the Troika left town — and seemed to take the Government’s resolve with it.
2014 has been Mr Kenny’s annus horribilis as the Government became swamped in damaging distractions of its own making which made it look out of touch and self indulgent.
The medical card scandal has finally been addressed after 18 months of ministers turning a tin ear to the catalogue of woe the withdrawal of services was causing.
After months of chaos, Environment Minister Alan Kelly has finally got a grip on water charges, but next week’s mass demonstration is still likely to deliver a howl of rage against the austerity regime imposed by the Government, with the tap tax acting as the final straw that broke the back of public endurance.
During the boom, the key swing voter was Breakfast Roll Man, who did not want the good times to end. At the next election, Water Tax Woman — as exemplified by Donna Hartnett, who chimed into the public mood of despair when she wrote an open letter saying she would quit her job as water charges were a financial burden too far for her family — will decide the outcome.
The opposition parties may be offering a message of greater fairness overall, but the Coalition has made it clear it intends to hammer home a message of fear that a change will undo what has been achieved via the massive sacrifices of the past six years.
The fog of war on the electoral battle ground is made denser by the fact that opinion polls continually overstate the number of votes Sinn Féin receives, while understating the ballot box support given to Fianna Fáil, and that the surge in backing for the independents throws any post-vote calculations into the realm of the unknown.
In part intended to restore Coalition cohesion, Mr Kenny’s call to arms is a warning to TDs to buckle up because it is going to be a long — and very bumpy — ride to the hustings.
