Sack or save: a difficult task for leaders

WITH two years left in this Coalition’s term and months out from an expected treble by-election day, the Cabinet reshuffle will be designed to give a much-needed boost to the popularity of the Government parties, while maintaining stability.

It’s a difficult balancing act for any party leader: Sack too many and you create powerful enemies, as Albert Reynolds learnt in 1992.

But play it too safe by merely shuffling the same personnel around, like Brian Cowen did in March 2010, and you frustrate ambitious backbenchers, while failing to satisfy a public appetite for change.

It appears that the Labour leader, Joan Burton, will have three positions to fill, to replace Eamon Gilmore, Ruairí Quinn and Pat Rabbitte.

With two of these already intending to step down, she will probably have to deliver just one sacking and so will avoid any backlash. However, she will benefit from being able to change three out of Labour’s five positions at the top table.

The task is more tricky for Enda Kenny who has to decide whether to save or sack some of those who have shown loyalty to him in the past. He will have at least one post to fill if Phil Hogan moves to take up the EU Commissioner post in Brussels.

He may decide to demote one or two of his ministers, and change others around, but is expected to be cautious in his approach.

In making their final decisions, the leaders will have a number of considerations:

Addressing the lack of confidence in Health Minister James Reilly.

With the prospect of another €500m budget over-run this year and the department suffering from a poor public image, there is now acceptance that Mr Reilly will not deliver on his promised reform of the health service. He is to Enda Kenny what Mary Coughlan was to Brian Cowen: A deputy leader unpopular with the public, but with few places to go.

There are still many who believe Mr Reilly could be left where he is.

But if Mr Kenny is to draw a line under what has been the biggest problem for this coalition to date — the medical card debacle — then someone will need to bring to Health, the sort of change of image that Frances Fitzgerald has brought to Justice

Addressing the huge gender imbalance in Government.

Joan Burton has previously spoken out about the lack of diversity of perspectives in a cabinet where just two senior ministries and one super-junior are held by women.

The Labour leader has both Kathleen Lynch and Jan O’Sullivan to promote from the junior ministerial ranks. But since the resignation of Lucinda Creighton, the Taoiseach has no female junior ministers and will have to look to the backbenchers if he believes Fine Gael should have more women at the table than its current one out of 10.

Infuse the Cabinet with new talent.

From the moment it was unveiled three years ago, it was remarked upon that the average age of the current cabinet is almost 62. While no one suggests that age should debar someone, and many believe such wise heads were necessary to keep the coalition together through difficult times, it needs a fresh new look.

The anticipated restructuring of some departments will contribute in some way to this impression, but changes in assigned responsibilities will be limited. There are many younger TDs in both parties who could bring fresh thinking and ideas to the table.

Saving seats.

The traditional geographical imperatives are said to be all but gone out the window in this reshuffle.

Instead of having a balance of ministers and juniors divided evenly between counties, the party leaders may look at boosting seats that are in danger under the redrawing of constituency boundaries, when making promotions.

But as one politician observed, this would require Ms Burton to give nearly everyone a job. This is something neither she nor the Taoiseach can do and, as always, there will be plenty of disappointment.