Equation impossible as Burton hopes to give Labour a new voice

Former accountant Joan Burton wants to make Labour the voice of Ireland, but has no room to manoeuvre, says Political Correspondent Shaun Connolly.

SO OFTEN mimicked for the distinctive way she speaks, Joan Burton’s pitch for the leadership is to promise to give Labour its voice back.

In the white heat of the electoral meltdown she sensed would soon leave Eamon Gilmore’s future in flames, it was no coincidence that the social protection minister quoted US president Barack Obama.

By using his “shellacking” soundbite to signify the scale of the defeat, Ms Burton wanted to try and communicate the subliminal message that she was the candidate of hope and change — but the problem is that the voter rage inflicted on Labour runs so deep, in this context, that change of emphasis will at best give the party some hope of avoiding total wipeout in the next general election.

It is a high-risk strategy for the party because if it elects Ms Burton as leader, the strains on the Coalition unleashed by such a move would bring that Dáil showdown much closer than the slated 2016 date.

If it was a decision of the parliamentary party, Ms Burton would probably not win, as she has limited support among TDs, and much of the goodwill that did exist was sorely tested last year during the soap opera that became the Joan and Eamon Show as she openly jockeyed for leadership as Labour sank single figure unpopularity.

However, Ms Burton has greater political star quality than all of her likely opponents put together.

She remains one of the handful of members of the Oireachtas to be instantly recognisable by their first name, and to be considered famous enough to warrant parody on the satire shows.

Critics accuse her of indecisiveness and a combative character, with few in Labour believing the Coalition would run its full term with her at the helm.

As one despairing Labour TD said: “It would be like putting Evel Knievel on the bridge of the Titanic. She’d go looking for icebergs, not avoiding them.”

The most interesting dynamic would be the one between her as Labour leader and Coalition partners Fine Gael who have an ABJ stance on the contest — Anyone But Joan.

As leader, it is likely she would insist on the Cabinet position she feels Mr Gilmore should have given her all along — public expenditure reform.

Ms Burton never tires of telling people she worked as an accountant, but Finance Minister Michael Noonan is known to believe that a lot of her political priorities do not add up.

Most people are surprised to learn that Ms Burton is 65, but her opponents will try to use age against her. But, like her 6ft frame, the Dublin West TD’s experience will also tower over the likes of Alan Kelly and Arthur Spring.

As members of Labour’s “generation next”, they will try and turn Ms Burton’s age against her and insist that she is too associated with the failures and unpopularity of the past and it is now time to go forward, not back.

However, Ms Burton is seen to have made the demotion to social protection work for her, as “core” welfare payments have been protected while she has talked tough on reforming the system and moving against cheats, while appealing to the middle classes.

However, many Labour voters felt betrayed that the party did not consider child benefit to be a “core” payment and thus made it eligible for one of the most unpopular decisions of the Government. Ms Burton has also been caught out with plans to divert more cash to needy families by limiting that universal allowance to high earners. This proved too complex for Revenue and, like her empty calls to bring in Scandinavian- style child care, left her looking out on a limb, rather than in control.

But she has strongly defended her budget, at €18bn the biggest in Government, against encroachments — and warned that she will not tolerate further bailouts from her funding to shore-up the chaotic situation in James Reilly’s health department.

Ms Burton has emerged largely unscathed from the messy withdrawal of medical cards, which will hurt possible rivals Brendan Howlin, who demanded major cuts from the health department overspend, and Alex White, who has defended them every step of the way as junior health minister. Ms Burton intends to base her platform on promising to return Labour to its traditional values and roots, while standing up loudly against Fine Gael when those are threatened.

AFTER various turf wars with Public Expenditure Minister Mr Howlin, Ms Burton is thought to believe the party might as well have stuck with Mr Gilmore as choose him as leader.

While Mr White is an unknown quantity and, at the age of 55 is hardly the generational change many seem to demand, the thrusting 30- and 40- somethings lack the experience of Coalition Cabinet battle.

However, the party’s position is even more dire than the slump to 7% of the popular vote suggests.

Some Labourites cling onto the hope that if they can at least claw their way back to the 10% they flat-lined at in the 2002 and 2007 general elections, they could hold the similar 20-seat haul they got in those two Dáils. However, the political topography of the country has shifted so dramatically since then that this would no longer be possible.

Labour often grabs the last seat on early transfers from bested Sinn Féin, Green, and Independent candidates.

But next time out, with Sinn Féin riding into the high teens, it will be their candidate that edges Labour into oblivion, while the rise of the anti-politics Independents will continue, and there will be precious little Green action to transfer over.

Ms Burton may want to make Labour the voice of Ireland still reeling under the recession. But after three long years pushing the austerity agenda it would be an almost impossible U-turn to manoeuvre — even if voters were still listening to what the party had to say anyway.