Impact of climate change hits home
LAST year’s prolonged autumn and the flooding that recently devastated coastal communities are a part of a wider pattern of global change. Around the world people are experiencing similar and related changes.
On Monday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the most comprehensive analysis of these changes at, global and regional scales, ever compiled.
It also points to what may happen in the future and outlines response options.
The findings are clear. The impacts of climate change are evident across all continents and oceans. They are affecting natural, economic and social systems. Where these systems are vulnerable, under stress, or have a high level of exposure, as some of our coastal communities have, the impacts can be large and destructive.
Changes to natural systems are the most evident. There is a northward movement of plants and animals all across the northern hemisphere. Complex ecological systems are being disrupted. Changes to rainfall patterns are affecting water resources and water quality.
Climate change-related declines in global maize and wheat yields have been observed.
For other crops such as rice and soya production, the observed changes balance out at a global level. Some high latitude regions have been able to increase food production.
For the future, these and other changes are projected to increase. The result being increased risks of impacts associated with rising sea levels, extreme precipitation, and inland and coastal flooding.
In Ireland, the vulnerabilities of our coastal communities have been evident in recent months. The risks associated with these and other vulnerabilities and will need to be assessed and factored into adaptation decisions and planning.
As warming increases yields of major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) are projected to be reduced. Higher warming may result in high risks for global food security, as the gap between production and population driven demand grows. There are potentially significant risks for biodiversity and human health.
The IPCC has identified that such aggregated impacts will have an effect on the global economy, but this analysis is still emerging. Climate change is expected to undermine poverty reduction initiatives and potentially exacerbate areas of potential conflict.
Such aggregated impacts constitute one of a number of global “reasons for concern”.
Others include the loss of unique human and natural systems, increases in extreme weather events and large scale singular events, such as loss of the Greenland ice shelf which would result in massive sea level rise.
These risks increase disproportionately as the global average temperature increases. They all become high or very high at a temperature increase of 2C or more above pre-industrial temperatures. At higher temperatures the report notes that some normal human activities may be compromised.
So what will happen with this report? World governments have collective ownership of the report and it is primarily for them to respond to its findings. However, addressing climate change is not just for governments, as is recognised in the report. Actions are already taking place at various levels and by a range of actors in communities, business and institutions.
This needs to continue. The information in the report can assist in this and help others who wish to commence doing so.
In Ireland the EPA is working with Met Éireann and the research community to provide more specific analysis of the projections and analysis for Ireland, based on the work done for this report.
This will assist in sectoral assessments, decision making, and planning under the recently published National Framework for Climate Change Adaptation and by other stakeholders.
Overall the messages from the IPCC are clear: Climate change is real and it is already impacting on us and the natural systems on which we depend; the risks arising from climate change need to be reduced and managed; and potential future risks need to be reduced by effective actions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
The response of world governments in Paris late next year, when the full fifth report from the IPCC will be available to them, will be a measure of how clearly the messages are heard.
