Science calms waters
NATURAL disasters like extreme storms, floods, or forest fires cannot be avoided. Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of such events may increase.
EU scientific research has helped a lot to improve the resilience and preparedness of Europe against natural and man-made disasters.
Since 2000, Ireland has experienced a number of devastating floods and storms, leaving more than 50 dead, thousands affected, and causing over €350m in damage — including the heavy floods in Dublin in 2011 and in Cork in 2009.
EU research has helped significantly in forecasting disasters better, to communicate reliable early warnings on the basis of solid data, and to establish the required emergency preparedness measures in advance.
The European Commission’s in-house science service, the Joint Research Centre (JRC), is a world leader in researching natural disasters and in establishing automated warning systems.
Supporting European policymakers and working closely with research institutions across the globe, the JRC assures a strong link between science and policy for the benefit of the people of Europe and around the world.
The JRC carries out research in the framework of the Europe 2020 strategy, as agreed by the European Commission, the 27 EU governments, and the European Parliament in 2010. The scientific capabilities of the JRC have produced a number of highly advanced computer-based systems that minimise the impact of disasters in Europe and further afield, where the EU is the largest donor of financial disaster aid worldwide.
The European Forest Fire Information System is also managed by the JRC. In 2011, the system monitored three major wild fires in Ireland which were the equivalent size of nearly 10,000 soccer pitches and had a drastic impact on the Natura2000 site of Gannivegil Bog in Donegal.
Ireland has been actively participating in the forest fire network since 2011 and has set up a new system for the collection of forest fire data. This system provides predictions of fire danger of up to six days in advance as well as daily updated information on active fires and fire damage in Europe.
Floods are likewise monitored by the EU JRC, and it predicts such activity with great accuracy via the European Flood Awareness System, of which Ireland has been a member since 2010. It complements the national flood forecasting systems and predicts the probability for floods in Europe up to 10 days in advance.
Based on similar concepts and methodologies, the Global Flood Awareness System has been developed to predict large-scale floods with more than 15 days of lead-time worldwide. Droughts are addressed by the European Drought Observatory, where the JRC also monitors and assesses regional and global desertification and land degradation.
Looking beyond European boundaries can also help prevent disasters in Europe; together with the UN, the JRC has contributed to the development of the Global Disaster Alert and Co-ordination System, which provides global multi-hazard monitoring and disaster alerts for tsunamis, floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes, and volcanic ash eruptions.
By combining information on a disaster such as defining the magnitude of an earthquake or by working out the extent of a tsunami-flooded area, the global disaster alert system can estimate the level of international humanitarian interventions that will be required.
The system runs automatically 24 hours a day, and sends SMS or email alerts to more than 20,000 users worldwide, including governments, rescue services, civil protection, and humanitarian organisations.
This expertise is also used in the EU, as the JRC is sharing its tsunami alert system with EU countries in the east Mediterranean and in the north-east Atlantic to help them build their own national tsunami warning capability.
JRC scientists also investigate the vulnerability of energy, commun-ication, and transport networks, and of industrial facilities. Current work is focusing on how solar storms could damage the power grid by geomagnetically induced currents that actually caused damage to transformers in Sweden and in Canada during the last solar peak in 2003.
The next solar peak is foreseen for 2013/14, and the JRC is examining the implications of hi-tech electronics on Earth, while partners like the European Space Agency are addressing the solar phenomenon predictability. The space weather observers are also working to avoid intentional interference of radio signals for the European Satellite Navigation System Galileo. Other research teams are investigating the knock-on effects of cyber attacks on networks and on industry automation.
The prediction of the exact location, time of occurrence, and intensity of future earthquakes is, at present, scientifically impossible. On the other hand, much can be done to enhance the safety of buildings because most human casualties are due to the collapse of inadequate structures following earthquakes.
In its European Laboratory for Structural Assessment, JRC engineers ‘shake’ full-scale structures to assess their behaviour and develop appropriate methodologies to make them more resistant to earthquakes. They have also modelled the behaviour of structures like train stations to explosions and other accidents.
With a strong track record in this multifaceted area of disaster management, the JRC has established itself as a key link between science and policy making, protecting the people, and making sure that disaster reduction efforts across Europe are well co-ordinated and that European budgets are used efficiently.
