Change on the horizon

Concern chief executive Tom Arnold writes from Somalia exactly one year on from the famine that struck the country and wider region, and finds a country that has been rejuvenated

THE images of life and death in Mogadishu one year ago were still vivid and raw. On Jul 21, 2011, one day after the UN had declared a famine in parts of South and Central Somalia, Frances O’Keeffe, chair of the Concern Council, Jim Fahy and Kieran McConville of RTÉ, and I went into Mogadishu. We saw the human consequences of the famine: Nutrition centres where over 80% of children were severely malnourished, and swelling camps catering for the flood of people who had deserted their villages because there was no food.

We were confronted with the consequences of the political instability and violence racking Somalia: Guns everywhere and major travel restrictions because of security concerns.

One year on, Frances and I returned to Mogadishu, this time for a visit by Tánaiste and foreign affairs minister Eamon Gilmore. It was a brief visit but nonetheless important and rich in its symbolism. On a number of occasions, he spoke of the links between the people of Ireland and the people of Somalia.

At the most fundamental level, the peoples of both countries share a famine experience. But that relationship was brought to a different level in 1992 when the then president, Mary Robinson, came to famine-ravaged Somalia, cried tears of rage and frustration on leaving, and then used that emotion to pressurise the UN and international community to respond more effectively. The world did so and thousands of lives were saved; the people of Somalia remember that, and the specific Irish contribution.

One year ago, she returned to Somalia to draw attention to a food crisis which risked becoming a repeat of 1992. The actual declaration of famine by the UN, her visit, and a number of other factors combined to see a more effective response in the second half of 2011 and, although suffering and death continued, deaths on the scale of 1992 were avoided.

The past year has seen major humanitarian, security, economic, and political changes in Somalia.

Although the country has somewhat receded from the headlines, the humanitarian situation remains serious. Mark Bowden, the experienced and respected UN humanitarian co-ordinator for Somalia, ranks it as one of the three or four top humanitarian crises in the world. Some 2.5m people are still in crisis, dependent on the international community for food and essentials. There are warning signs the situation could quickly deteriorate again, as the short April-June rains have been patchy, which will lead to greater food insecurity, especially in Southern Somalia, later this year.

The security situation in Mogadishu has definitely improved in comparison to one year ago, though it still remains fragile in Mogadishu and even more so in other regions of Somalia. Traffic in Mogadishu moves freely, at least during certain times of the day.

However, a recent UN report has highlighted the scale of violence against vulnerable women, particularly the internally displaced women living in camps who are dependent on aid.

The improved economic situation in Mogadishu provides the greatest contrast. Shops and businesses are springing up, there are reports of soaring rents and property prices, and local markets are emerging. New solar lights have been erected in the main street for the first time in 20 years, paid for by the Norwegian government. There is an entire generation that has never seen the city with lights before.

There are other signs of change and creeping normality. Women can now be seen driving cars, something hitherto unimaginable, and the traffic police office has now taken to issuing driving licences.

There are also portents of political change. Over the past year, a number of key Somali political leaders and elders have been discussing with a set of external political actors to see if Somalia can be transformed into a more normal and sustainable political entity. Some of these discussions have been held outside Somalia, in Kampala, London, and Istanbul. This had led to an agreed “roadmap to transition” which would provide a more permanent government for the country for the first time since 1991.

While it would be unwise to stretch the analogy too far, there may be, in what is emerging in Somalia, echoes of the Northern Ireland peace process. The common features may include a societal weariness about a generation-long conflict; a recognition that a continuation of this conflict will condemn the next generation to the violence, loss, and missed opportunity experienced by the previous one; and a set of external actors willing and able to assist in a resolution of the internal conflict and the creation of a more sustainable political future. They were part of the ingredients that led to the Belfast agreement on Good Friday 1998. The hope is that a similar basis for an historic accommodation might now be possible in Somalia.

At the end of his visit on Sunday, Mr Gilmore pledged an additional €3m in Irish aid to Somalia. This was a welcome decision, given the ongoing humanitarian crisis and the lifesaving work that can be done with an additional few million euro.

He also pledged to use his voice internationally for Somalia, to keep a focus on the ongoing humanitarian crisis and to contribute in whatever way possible to a more stable future for the country. Ireland’s forthcoming presidency of the EU during the first half of 2013 will offer one such possibility, given that the EU is likely to be a key external actor in any possible political settlement and a subsequent national reconstruction programme.

Irish aid agencies such as Concern and Trócaire, both of which have worked in Somalia for over 20 years and have built up bonds of trust with local authorities and communities, will also have a key role to play in the country’s future.

There is no guarantee that the Somali leaders will arrive at a comprehensive and inclusive political settlement, providing stability and hope for a new generation. But at least the seeds of hope are there. If these seeds are to germinate, Ireland could yet play a small but critical role in realising the opportunity for Somalia and its most distressful people.

That is why it was important that Eamon Gilmore saw first hand the realities of Somalia. He can now speak of the country with an informed authority and passion not possible without seeing it. Last Sunday was a good use of his time.